Late rally lifts NZX-50 performance

Peter Young
Peter Young
A rally late last week by United States sharemarkets helped lift the monthly performance of the NZX-50 index for November, Forsyth Barr broker Peter Young said yesterday.

The NZX-50 gross index delivered a negative 3.9% return for November compared with a negative 8.7% return in October.

The year to November 30 return was negative 33.3%.

"It's fair to say our market held its own in November, but we were helped last week by the Dow Jones being up five days in a row.

That boosted returns.

There was a 'feel good factor' working.

"The market is still down, but there are a few signs of it getting better."

The US futures index was down 0.9% yesterday, indicating that a tough day lay ahead for investors, Mr Young said.

Stock performance could be lacklustre this week as investors' attention shifted back to the deteriorating United States economy.

Many economic reports were due there this week, Kazuhiro Takahashi, general manager at Daiwa Securities SMBC, Japan, said online.

"Market participants are eyeing a string of US data this week, including monthly employment data on Friday. Early results from the Black Friday weekend that kicks off holiday shopping in the United States, showed that sales grew in shops and online, fuelled by repeat trips and deep discounts."

But an early rush was unlikely to save what is shaping up to be a bleak sales season, he said.

In New Zealand, Pumpkin Patch, APN News Media and AMP were the best-performed companies in November.

Mr Young said the main reason Pumpkin Patch had an 11.8% monthly return was due to the announcement of an "on market buy-back" for up to a maximum of 8.35 million ordinary shares.

Pumpkin Patch chief executive Maurice Prendergast said the buy-back reflected management's belief in the underlying value of the brand and the confidence in the company's continued financial performance in the future.

AMP was helped to its 8.8% return by the strength of the New Zealand dollar.

The insurance company also did a placement of shares at $A5.30 on the ASX which shored up its balance sheet.

APN had a 7.3% return, helped by Independent News and Media Ltd receiving several unsolicited offers to buy its share of the New Zealand Herald publisher.

Nuplex was the worst performer in November with a negative 22.8% return.

It was hurt by a profit downgrade and soft trading conditions, Mr Young said.

Rakon was the next worst with a monthly return of negative 25.5%.

The company's sales and profit were well down, reflecting slower demand for its products and the sale of a low margin business.

Rakon had moved from a net cash position to modest gearing, pushing interest costs higher.

"The company expects operations to remain volatile in the near term and customers are likely to try to reduce ordering lead times which will keep pressure on Rakon's working capital."

Pike River Coal delivered a negative 24.9% return, hurt by a substantially lower coking coal price from the $US300 a tonne received this year.

"We suspect that this sentiment is a key factor in the fall of the share price. From a valuation perspective, the key issue is the long-term coal price. We are currently assuming a $US100 a tonne and a US62c for the dollar. At current levels it seems very attractive but the price is very sensitive to those assumptions."

 

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