Invaders from out of our space

Distance is a great friend of New Zealand’s.

While humanity is more connected than ever before, and aviation and technology have effectively shrunk the planet, we remain isolated.

We are a long way from many parts of the world. When your plane leaves the runway to head off into the wide blue yonder, it is some hours before land is again scudding below the wing.

Unfortunately, while we can, to some extent, get on with our own business here at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, no matter how distant we are there are some things we cannot get away from on this planet.

All sorts of invaders loom just over the horizon.

They do not respect borders or history, and for them crossing thousands of kilometres of sea represents just a small hiccup on their journey.

New Zealanders have had two reminders so far this summer of the potential threat to life and livelihood from unwanted organisms looking to make Aotearoa their home.

At one end of the country, in South Auckland, the Ministry for Primary Industries continues to search for oriental fruit flies after one was caught in a trap. If the pest becomes established in New Zealand, it will cause huge damage to our fruit export industry.

Down south, the discovery of a strain of bird flu at a Hillgrove poultry farm at the start of December came as a wake-up call to many that New Zealand was not somehow immune from the spread of a virus which has caused significant concern around the world.

Fortunately for us, the strain of the avian influenza was deemed to be H7N6, not the H5N1 virus which has been killing birds across much of the northern hemisphere and also infecting humans. The World Health Organisation reports that, between January 2003 and last October, 904 people in 24 countries were infected with H5N1. Of these, more than half, 464, died. Last month, the United States had its first reported death from the virus.

Influenza A H5N1 / bird flu virus particles round and rod-shaped red and yellow. Creative...
Influenza A H5N1 / bird flu virus particles round and rod-shaped red and yellow. Creative composition and colorization/effects by NIAID transmission electron micrograph imagery is courtesy of CDC. IMAGE: Zuma Press/TNS
While H5N1 is currently largely confined to wild bird populations throughout Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia and the United States, it has also spread to South America, the Antarctic peninsula and the sub-Antarctic islands.

Just before Christmas, MPI gave the good news that it was confident the outbreak at the Mainland Poultry farm had been stamped out. More than 4000 samples were taken from birds in 36 flocks and none returned a positive result for H7N6.

While that gives us some comfort, the reality is we have only, by luck, managed to kick the H5N1 can a little further down the road.

University of Otago evolutionary virologist Jemma Geoghegan certainly believes that it is now a matter of when, not if, the virus arrives here courtesy of migrating birds, possibly from Antarctica.

She says human cases so far have been due to direct contact with infected birds. But, as we have learnt from Covid-19, viruses can evolve and mutate quickly. Prof Geoghegan says the concern will be if the H5N1 virus acquires the ability to transmit directly from human to human.

She paints a grim picture of what may happen when it does arrive. It would be devastating for our wildlife and potentially deadly for humans.

The country needs to be on its toes to recognise the virus immediately and take precautions.

On a brighter note, Prof Geoghegan says we now have vaccines which can be modified to fight against new strains, so we won’t be as in the dark as we were at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The obligation to be aware of, and prepare for, the next pandemic was highlighted recently by a group of public health specialists, including Otago University’s Michael Baker.

They said the 39 recommendations of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Covid-19 gave robust direction for future pandemic planning, including having a central agency co-ordinate government preparation and response planning. However, they also said the coalition’s cutbacks at ministries were threatening the country’s ability to effectively tackle the next, inevitable, pandemic.

Hard-won lessons learnt from the frightening spread of Covid-19 must be employed to ensure we are ready the next time a malign invader comes knocking at our door.