Confidential polling, conducted face to face through door-knocking, factory visits, and the use of cellphones - rather than the standard method of relying on landlines - shows that many voters on the Maori roll intend switching their party vote allegiance to the Maori Party this election instead of giving it to Labour as they did at the last.
The information obtained by the Otago Daily Times showed 40% of Maori roll voters giving their party vote to Labour and 30% to the Maori Party - a far cry from the last election, when Maori roll voters voted largely for the Maori Party in the electorate vote and Labour in the party vote.
This trend was given weight by numerous conversations held with voters across five Auckland markets over the weekend by the ODT.
In a ray of brighter news for Labour, the same polling showed the Maori Party confidently ahead in only four electorates, the four already held by the party.
They are behind for the first time in Te Tai Tonga, which includes all of the South Island, and still neck and neck in Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Hauraki-Waikato, which are held by Labour Cabinet ministers.
Earlier polling and a number of predictions indicated the Maori Party could be on course to win all seven Maori seats.
At the last election, National looked like it was headed for victory on election night until results from the four South Auckland "M" seats - Manurewa, Manukau East, Mangere and Maungakiekie - came in after 11pm.
Those electorates went strongly Labour on both votes, but it seems that Labour's support in those seats has diminished.
While George Hawkins will hold Manurewa for Labour and Ross Robertson looks certain to retain Manukau East, things were not quite so clear in the other two seats.
Mr Hawkins said in an interview the campaign was tougher this year. He held Manurewa by 11,000 votes last time but had lost two solid Labour areas to Papakura in electorate boundary changes.
The National Party candidate, Cam Calder, was working hard but was from North Shore and had not connected with many of the voters.
However, at the Manurewa market yesterday, Mr Calder had a team of older supporters handing out leaflets and talking to voters.
Former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field is standing under his new New Zealand Pacific Party banner. At the Mangere market on Saturday morning, many of the young Polynesians attending were out campaigning for Mr Field.
National has a strong candidate in Mita Harris and Labour has Sio Su'a.
At the Otara flea market on Saturday, Labour had a big force of supporters out in the anticipation that Miss Clark would be attending. She did not, but Mr Robertson and Tamaki-Makaurau candidate and list MP Louisa Wall were prominent throughout the market.
On current polling, Ms Wall will not return to Parliament from Labour's list and she is unlikely to unseat Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples, the Tamaki-Makaurau MP.
Dr Sharples said his message to Maori voters was that the Maori Party was "their party", formed after a protest hikoi marched on Parliament.
"This is their party and they should be investing in the whole party by giving us the two ticks. Don't give your party vote to the others, believe in the things that the Maori Party is doing. If they vote for us, then that is the message we can take to National and Labour after the election. The Maori Party will be in a position of authority."
Dr Sharples' campaign manager, Chris Tooley, said 60% of Dr Sharples' vote came from Otara, Mangere and Manurewa. Although the party received votes in the centre of Auckland, the main support was on the edges.
Dr Tooley said the results in Te Tai Tonga, Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Hauraki-Waikato could come down to margins of around 1000 votes, which would prompt recounts.
"We don't expect to know the results on election night."
Ikaroa-Rawhiti is held by Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia and Hauraki-Waikato by Customs Minister Nanaia Mahuta. Both are high enough on Labour's list to return to Parliament.
Asked if the Maori Party was getting any pressure from voters to support either Labour or National in forming a government after the election, Dr Tooley said people seemed to be favouring Labour, but the party was keeping its options open.
The Polynesian vote was harder to define during interviews with candidates and supporters at five South Auckland markets. However, there was a general trend against Labour, the traditional home for Polynesian voters.
