While the mood for change swept the country, National performed poorly in the city.
With National’s Michael Woodhouse no longer in Parliament, Dunedin is left without either an electorate or list government member of Parliament for the first time in nearly 24 years.
We must hope Dunedin Mayor Jules Radich is correct when he said he was confident the city would receive a fair hearing.
We must also expect National’s commitments to the new Dunedin hospital to be fulfilled.
On preliminary results, National received just 22.6% of Dunedin’s party votes, behind Labour on 32% and the Greens on 25.9%.
As expected, Rachel Brooking won the electorate vote by a wide margin, although well down on David Clark’s whopping win in 2020.
National’s 22.6% in Dunedin compares with 39% nationally.
When Mr Woodhouse declined to take up a low place on the National list he continued on the ballot paper as the party’s electorate candidate. That was an impossible contest. He basically stepped aside. In any event, National would not have wanted a candidate on the way out pushing its cause in Dunedin.
National’s Taieri candidate, Matthew French, stepped in with a little help, and National list candidate James Christmas also came to fly the flag in the city.
But where were the billboards? Advertising was also lean, and leader Christopher Luxon did not come to Dunedin.
While a few hard workers might have done their best, National could, and should, have picked up more party votes in the electorate.
Mr French went close in Taieri, and the preliminary party vote margin is also narrow; 34.8% Labour and 33.9% National. The Greens are on 9.9%. While Taieri extends beyond Balclutha, giving it in part a rural flavour, it still includes some southern parts of Dunedin as well as Mosgiel.
Of course, National also performed badly in Dunedin in the party vote in 2020 when Labour swept so much before them. Again, the Greens were in second place, although a long way behind Labour.
The final results reveal better National returns for the more normal 2017 election, when the seat was called Dunedin North.
It was still low at 27.8% of the party vote but healthier. Labour was at 47.6%, but the Greens received only about half the votes of National.
Dunedin at the last first-past-the-post election in 1993 elected three Labour MPs in a 99-seat Parliament, Dunedin North, Dunedin West and St Kilda. All MPs were from electorates and Dunedin’s proportion of the country’s population was higher.
That was a dire time for Dunedin representation when National was in power. When all were safe Labour seats (apart from a 1975 anomaly), National could ignore Dunedin. Voting for National made no difference to the make-up of Parliament.
Every vote for a significant party counts under MMP. Perhaps National, with more effort targeted in Dunedin, could have won a valuable few thousand extra votes in the electorate.
National triumphed in Invercargill, helped by MP Penny Simmonds. It is hard to believe the electorate was once marginal. National has 42.8% of the party vote and Labour 25.8%.
As it happened, National is winning so many electorate seats that its list tally is sitting at only five. Mr Woodhouse would have missed out even with a reasonable list placing.
There will be insufficient National list MPs to properly help look after Dunedin or Taieri. Neighbouring government MPs will have their hands full.
Mr Woodhouse noted the lack of Dunedin MPs in government left the city in an ‘‘interesting position’’. Although he was confident National would advocate for Dunedin, the question was how it would do so logistically, he said.
Indeed. The lack of National or Act representation in Dunedin is a serious concern, an issue for both the city and National.
