It is playoffs time in both the NPC and the Heartland Championship. Sixteen of the 26 teams — yes, seems excessive — get to play knockout rugby. But who will survive and progress? Hayden Meikle makes some semi-educated guesses.
NPC quarterfinals
Canterbury v Auckland
Christchurch, tomorrow, 7.05pm
The oil: Canterbury, who qualified third, come into the playoffs with just two wins from their past five games. Auckland snapped a two-game losing run with a one-point win over Northland in the final round to qualify sixth. Auckland beat Canterbury 36-29 earlier in the season.
Key men: Highlanders captain Billy Harmon and Tom Christie are tackling machines for Canterbury — they fill the top two spots in the list of most prolific tacklers in the competition — and Fergus Burke is an influential playmaker. Auckland is getting plenty out of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck before he returns to the Warriors. The fullback leads the NPC in metres, carries and defenders beaten.
Meikle’s tip: Canterbury 32-22.
Wellington v Waikato
Wellington, tomorrow, 4.35pm
The oil: Defending champions and top qualifiers Wellington were a perfect nine-from-nine before the two-point loss to the Ranfurly Shield MURDERERS. Waikato are this year’s token "won five, lost five, should not really be in the playoffs" team. Wellington beat Waikato 41-24 in the regular season.
Key men: Rising star Peter Lakai is the danger man in the Wellington pack, and Aidan Morgan is starting to convince as a top-shelf first five. James Tucker is a warrior for Waikato.
Meikle’s tip: Wellington 42-18.
Taranaki v Tasman
New Plymouth, tomorrow, 7.05pm
The oil: Second-top Taranaki won four then lost three then won three. Read into that what you will. Their biggest loss of the season? An 11-point defeat by Tasman. The Mako have lost two straight heading into the playoffs.
Key men: This is a great opportunity for Highlanders fans to see two of their new recruits. Taranaki fullback Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens has the most clean breaks (12) in the NPC, and Tasman winger Timoci Tavatavanawai is third for defenders beaten (47).
Meikle’s tip: Taranaki 34-30.
Bay of Plenty v Ranfurly Shield Murderers
Tauranga, Sunday, 2.05pm
The oil: Bay of Plenty are humming, winning their final three games to qualify fourth. The Ranfurly Shield Murderers are also riding a three-game winning streak, but they are very naughty boys.
Key men: Former Highlanders lock Manaaki Selby-Rickit has turned into a try-scoring machine for the Steamers, and Wharenui Hawera is showing real promise at first five. Nobody from the other Bay deserves a mention.
Meikle’s tip: Bay of Plenty 24-19.
Heartland Champs semifinals
Meads Cup
Whanganui v Thames Valley
Whanganui, tomorrow, 1.05pm
The oil: The ‘Nui ride a five-game winning streak into the playoffs and have the meanest defence in Heartland rugby. Thames Valley have looked creaky at times but have some experienced heads who will step up.
Meikle’s tip: Whanganui 22-21.
That Team v East Coast
Pleasant Point, tomorrow, 3.05pm
The oil: The entire nation hopes and prays for the mighty Coasters as they seek to prevent That Team winning a 30th consecutive Heartland game. You can do it!
Meikle’s tip: East Coast 50-0.
Lochore Cup
North Otago v Poverty Bay
Oamaru, tomorrow, 2pm
The oil: The Old Golds missed out on the top tier after a dreadful display against West Coast in the final round. They look good when they fire, but they still have not got the recipe right. Poverty Bay are in the playoffs with a record of two wins and six losses. Yep.
Meikle’s tip: North Otago 42-30.
Wairarapa-Bush v West Coast
Masterton, tomorrow, 2.30pm
The oil: Neither side has set the world on fire but both will be very keen for a trip to Oamaru for the final.
Meikle’s tip: West Coast 27-23.
