If that is the case — and we would inject a note of caution because the diva has not sung — then attention turns to the make-up of that government.
While early voting is about to start, and overseas polling has begun, shifts do not have to be large to change the complexion of the election.
Polls can also be skewed across the board. Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as United States president illustrate this.
There are reasons why answers to pollsters might not match the votes themselves.
As well, substantial numbers of undecided and/or disillusioned potential voters remain in play. Where will they land, if anywhere?
Additionally, most commentators think Prime Minister Chris Hipkins "won" Wednesday’s night leaders’ debate. More scrutiny has been applied to National’s policies. More focus is going on the relationship between potential coalition partners National, Act New Zealand and New Zealand First.
Mr Luxon once pushed a line about the left’s "Coalition of Chaos", partly because of how radical Te Pāti Māori’s policies are.
Supposedly, also, Labour could still be pushed into introducing a wealth tax, despite Mr Hipkins saying this would not happen under his leadership.
Mr Luxon, as New Zealand First consistently breaches the 5% MMP threshold in the polls, has reluctantly accepted he might be forced to negotiate with its leader, Winston Peters.
The fact they are fishing in the same voting pond on race separatism accentuates the tension. New Zealand First’s resurrection is chipping away at peak Act as the election looms.
Mr Seymour has said Mr Peters is the least trustworthy politician in New Zealand. He has also said he could not serve in Cabinet with that "clown".
However, he has recently said that while working with Mr Peters would be "complicated", his party would "do their best".
Mr Seymour has also spoken about sitting on the cross benches — attempting to assert independence from National and secure leverage. New Zealand First, after its experiences with Labour, might also want to retain some distance.
Reacting to a claim from Mr Luxon during the leaders’ debate on Wednesday night that he did not know Mr Peters, moderator Paddy Gower said: "Everybody knows him".
In one sense Mr Gower is correct. Mr Peters has been in (mostly) and out of Parliament since 1979. He has been Treasurer, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister. But Mr Peters has bounced around on issues and on whom he supports. He deliberately makes himself difficult to pin down.
There are thoughtful people on the left — should their side lose as expected at present — who want Mr Luxon to need New Zealand First, and not just for potential instability.
The party was a "handbrake" on Labour during its first term from 2017.
It could perform the same role, blunting Act’s influence on centrist National.
The lessons of political history about coalitions are mixed. Sometimes they are simply unstable.
Sometimes, though, the necessity to work together to obtain and retain power overcomes personal and policy differences.
In this case, policy divergences between the parties are not as stark as is often the case.
Post-election Messrs Luxon, Seymour and Peters could well have a potent incentive to work together.
