The left-wing indigenous rights party has reached seven percent according to Australian pollsters Roy Morgan, which produced the most accurate poll at the last New Zealand election.
The minor party's surge would see them take a swathe of seats in the next parliament and, in all likelihood, support Labour for a third term.
The October 14 contest remains hyper-tight according to most public polling and in Roy Morgan's June numbers.
According to the poll, the left bloc of Labour (30.5 percent), the Greens (9.5 percent) and Te Pāti Māori would take 61 seats.
The right bloc of National (30 percent) and right-wing libertarians ACT (15 percent) would make huge gains from the 2020 election result but be stranded on 59 seats.
Jacinda Ardern's Labour won office in 2017 after a coalition deal with the Greens and New Zealand First.
Winston Peters' populist New Zealand First party did not reach the five percent threshold to return to parliament in 2020 and on the latest numbers, would miss out again, polling at three percent (down 0.5 percent).
Following Ms Ardern's departure at the start of the year, Chris Hipkins took over as Labour leader and prime minister.
While Te Pāti Māori have not indicated which major party they would support into government, the National party under leader Chris Luxon has ruled out working with them in office.
Te Pāti Māori supported Sir John Key's National-led government last decade but Mr Luxon says they are "too radical" to work with.
Their best result at a prior election is 2.4 percent.
While Labour can at least cling to tenuous path to power on these figures, Roy Morgan chief executive Michele Levine concludes there is bad news for both major parties in the poll results.
Ms Levine noted a further slide for National to be the lowest vote under Mr Luxon's leadership, which began in November 2021.
"The party's share of the vote has dropped consistently since reaching a recent high of 39 percent in November 2022," she said.
Another measure polled, the government confidence rating, suggests a Labour triumph was unlikely.
"A clear majority of 54 percent of New Zealanders say the country is 'heading in the wrong direction' and only 38 percent say the country is 'heading in the right direction'," she said.
LATEST POLL RESULTS
Labour - 30.5 percent (down 0.5 percent)
National - 30 (down 1.5)
ACT - 15 (up 1.5)
Greens - 9.5 (down 2.5)
Te Pāti Māori - 7 (up 2.5)
NZ First - 3 (down 0.5)
TOP - 3 (up 1)
