Today, National unveiled a suite of policies to tackle what leader Christopher Luxon called a "crime wave" sweeping the country, pointing to increases in reports of violent crime and retail crime - including ram-raids - in particular.
It called for an end to Labour’s push to reduce the prison population by 30 per cent.
The policies include limiting sentence discounts to 40 per cent, scrapping cultural reports - redirecting the funding to victim support - and improving access to rehabilitation programmes for prisoners on remand, numbers of which have exploded in recent years and make up nearly half of the prison muster, largely due to court delays and backlogs.
Speaking to reporters, Luxon said they did not know how much the policies would cost nor how many more people could be imprisoned due to changes in sentencing, but accepted they would likely lead to an increase in the prison population in the "short term".
Police spokesman Mark Mitchell said it was difficult to put a number on as many of their other policies were designed to reduce crime overall, such as those around gangs and youth crime, which should also keep the number of people being imprisoned low.
Prior to Labour coming into government in 2017 the prison population had been steadily increasing, becoming among the highest rates of incarceration per capita in the OECD - with Māori imprisoned at a rate six times higher than non-Māori.
Former National Prime Minister Sir Bill English had even accepted the high incarceration rate and prisons as a whole as a "moral and fiscal failure".
Since Labour has been in Government, the prison population has fallen by over 20 per cent. The incarceration rate as of June last year was 149 people per 100,000 people - down from a peak of 213 in 2018.
This puts New Zealand more in line with comparable countries, including Australia at 165 per 100,000 people and the United Kingdom and Wales at 134 per 100,000 people.
Justice Minister Kiri Allan said it was inconceivable in an election year National would put up such a significant policy without doing any costings.
She said reversing Labour’s 20 per cent decrease in the prison population at about $193,000 per prisoner per year could cost about another $300 million a year.
"He wants longer terms, sentences. Well, that is gonna cost money.
"When we came in, we decided not to follow the routes that America has. We didn’t want to build big maxi prisons here in New Zealand.
"Because we don’t think that they work. The evidence shows us that doesn’t work."
Allan said their focus was on intervening early and prevention, including community support.
She said she disagreed with the assertion the country was in a "crime wave", saying it "ebbs and flows" and while it was above pre-Covid levels, "this is what happens, generally".
She also criticised the proposal to limit sentence discounts to 40 per cent, saying it was "egregious" politicians were trying to impinge upon the judiciary.
Currently, judges can apply a range of cumulative discounts, including up to 25 per cent for an early guilty plea and taking into account an offender’s background and upbringing.
In its policy document, National has cited cases of discounts as high as 85 per cent. Another involved a 60 per cent sentence reduction given to a 19-year-old who, carrying a knife, kicked down the front door of a pregnant woman, assaulted her and kidnapped another person.
Allan said she was satisfied with the how the Sentencing Act was operating.
"There is a big reason for why there is so much discretion held by the judiciary - they see far more than you and I will ever see.
"And that’s essentially part of the trust that we have to have in the judicial system. Politicians should not be sentencing people."
She said ultimately such a policy would see more people sentenced for longer, and that came with a cost.
On plans to ensure people on remand could access rehabilitation, Allan said they already had plans to address that.
National also delved into Act Party territory, vowing to restore the "Three Strikes" policy and scrap Government funding for cultural reports – both current policies of their potential coalition partner.
Luxon said the Three Strikes law - which ensured maximum sentences without parole for a third offence of specific crimes - would be brought back, but with clearer guidelines for judges regarding discretion.
Luxon said $20 million over four years would be redirected from those reports to supporting victims, including a 29 per cent boost to funding that helps victims access services like counselling or transport to attend court.
The party would also ensure remand prisoners could access rehabilitation programmes that currently are available only to sentenced prisoners.
"If you want to try to turn your life around, we’ll help you do that. But if you re-offend, be warned. Under National, you’ll face tough consequences," Luxon said.
By Michael Nielson
Michael Neilson covers politics for the NZ Herald, based at Parliament in Wellington. He started out in journalism at the Gisborne Herald in 2016 before joining the NZ Herald in 2018 – covering social issues, the environment and Māori affairs. He joined the press gallery team in 2021.
