Signs looking positive as index strong

Some Otago-Southland manufacturers are doing well as they focus strongly on pre-Christmas and early summer sales, the latest BNZ-BusinessNZ performance in manufacturing index shows.

Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett said despite seeing underperforming production and deliveries data in October, the regional index ''stepped solidly'' into expansionary territory with a 7.3% rise to 58 points.

The New Zealand index reading was 55.7 points. Northern was 60.7, central 53.6 and Canterbury-Westland 52.5.

A reading of above 50 indicates expansion. The higher the number, the stronger the expansion.

''Survey feedback from the majority of food and beverage and packaging sector commentators has focused strongly on pre-Christmas and early summer sales strength indicators.

Within the wood and paper industry, one operator tagged recent success factors to new new significant contracts.''

But not everyone was happy, Mr Scandrett said. There were negative comments on high raw milk prices affecting selected food and beverage activities and a slowing of offshore demand for some wood products had been seen.

Looking ahead, the robust expansion-oriented new orders and finished stocks sub-indices provided a strong indication further gains in the manufacturing sector would also be seen in November, he said.

BNZ economist Doug Steel New Zealand's economic expansion was becoming broader and deeper.

''For a while, many believed a pick-up in economic activity was almost exclusively dependent on the rebuild of Christchurch. This was not a view we shared and recent data validates that scepticism.''

Not only was the Christchurch rebuild gathering momentum, there was also evidence of an increase in construction activity elsewhere, strong retail spending growth, an improving tourism market, strong dairy prices amid generally favourable agriculture prices, a strong oil and gas exploration outlook and a more buoyant services sector overall, he said.

The BNZ was forecasting gross domestic product (total economic activity) to grow 3.2% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015 but Mr Steel did not rule out stronger activity.

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