Research by Craigs Investment Partners estimated that with the 30% downturn expected from mainly New Zealand beer sales, previously estimated revenues for 2014 will decline by almost $2.6 million, from $8.62 million to $6.03 million.
Craigs broker Peter McIntyre said Moa's stock had carried a ''positive outlook'', given global growth in the craft beer market, but the 30% downgrade has altered that outlook to ''neutral'', because of rising risks.
''Moa still have the ability to post a profit, but that's dependent on successfully reorganising [New Zealand and Australian] distribution, and containing all other expenses; which aren't known,'' Mr McIntyre said.
Following Moa's downgrade late on Monday, its shares plummeted from $1.18 to stabilise and trade around 85c yesterday.
Mr McIntyre said ''neutral'' was assigned because of Moa's ''significant miss'' on sales compared with forecasts in its initial public offering last November, and the ''lack of visibility'' on problems in the New Zealand distribution chain.
''It's good to see Moa's being proactive in making changes... but disappointing changes were needed given the New Zealand distribution was finalised only 12 months ago,'' he said.
Aside from revenue growth declining, Mr McIntyre said changes now would likely see costs increase and Moa's growth trajectory would ''moderate''.
Because of the lower beer volume this year, Mr McIntyre said the planned $6.1 million in new brewery investment was likely to be delayed, until distribution was sorted out and future volume requirements became known.
