Let's get all our nagging doubts and a couple of cliches out of the way in the first few paragraphs, shall we?
The Otago Nuggets have peaked too soon. The wheels have come off and they won't win another game this season. Just putting it out there.
The last two weeks have been mystifying. A Nuggets team that won eight consecutive games to open the season, and dominated the National Basketball League until the ill-fated trip to Invercargill late last month, has seemingly been replaced by a motley crew which more closely resembles the Nuggets of old - you know, the lot responsible for a three-year, 33-game losing streak.
But here is another cliche: great players don't become duds overnight.
The Nuggets still have the raw material to emerge from their distressing late-season form slump. And, regardless of what happens in their last round-robin game against the Taranaki Mountain Airs in New Plymouth on Saturday, the Nuggets have already qualified for the playoffs and are just two good performances away from winning their first title.
They just need to get back to what was working for them in the early part of the campaign - uncompromising defence coupled with power under the hoop.
It is interesting to compare team statistics from the end of round six with the end of round 11. The Nuggets were the most miserly team in the league, conceding 76.1 points a game after eight games. They are now conceding 85.6 points and have dropped to fifth in that statistic.
That inability to stop teams scoring has put enormous pressure on their offence and the Nuggets have really struggled, averaging just 73.6 points in their last three games.
Admittedly, they were all losses and against the other three top sides. But it is an alarming trend, when you consider the Nuggets were averaging 96.5 points at the end of round six.
All teams have peaks and troughs. Ideally, you want your troughs to be buried in the middle of the season rather than towards the tail end of the round robin.
But the good news for the Nuggets is defence is more about attitude, commitment and sheer will than it is about precision, skill and execution. In that sense, it is easier to fix than the offence.
Nuggets captain Mark Dickel has said all his side's worries will disappear once they re-commit to the task. He knows they have hit a flat patch and has promised a much-improved defensive effort against the Mountain Airs.
Dickel, at 36, is still one of the best defenders in the league. He is third in the league for steals and pulls down 5.9 rebounds a game, which is fine effort for a point guard. And that is all defence takes - effort.
Another damaging statistic for the Nuggets is free-throw shooting. They trail the league with a mark of just 62.7%. Too many points are going begging at the charity stripe.
If the Nuggets intend to exploit their power under the rim, the big guys need to start hitting their free throws.
Akeem Wright (53.3%) and BJ Anthony (55.3%) are among the worst offenders and Brendon Polyblank (58.85) and Antoine Tisby (65.7%) have plenty of room for improvement as well. It is an epidemic.
The Nuggets' rotations do not seem as smooth, either. That was never more evident than when they trailed the Saints by 20 points with 10min remaining and the team's best three-point shooter, Hayden Allen, started the fourth quarter from the bench.
Allen is an experienced guard who has proved he can help win matches at this level. The Nuggets need to get him involved more, especially when Wright is having one of those nights when he can't hit his shots.
