Case numbers drop but caution still advised

Prof Michael Baker. Photo: ODT files

The South may well have started a gradual descent from its peak in new community cases of Covid-19, epidemiologist Prof Michael Baker says.

However, people had to keep their guard up, because there was still a lot of transmission of the virus, he said.

Prof Baker, from the University of Otago’s Wellington campus, said West Coast case numbers had been up and down, but numbers were now tracking down for all district health boards.

"It’s an improving situation," he said.

Nationally, new community cases dipped below 10,000 yesterday, to 9906.

The total number of people with Covid-19 in hospital was 626, including 23 in the Southern district, the Ministry of Health reported.

Seventeen people were in intensive care in New Zealand’s hospitals and 10 cases were reported yesterday of people who had died with Covid-19.

In Otago and Southland, 1110 new community cases were reported yesterday, down from 1157 on Thursday, 1368 on Wednesday and 1456 on Tuesday.

The highest number of new cases in the South was 1631 on March 23.

University of Canterbury mathematics modeller Prof Michael Plank said Covid-19 admissions to hospital in the South could be a week away from peaking.

Significant levels of infection would continue.

"It is certainly not a good idea to let your guard down," Prof Plank said.

Prof Baker said district health boards with larger populations had tended to have their Covid-19 peaks earlier than those with populations that were more scattered.

The next month in Auckland could provide strong indications about levels of infection that could be sustained without putting too much pressure on the health system, he said.

In its daily update yesterday, the Southern District Health Board noted some aged residential care facilities were closed to visitors as a precaution.

Many facilities had had staff test positive for Covid-19 and some had found infection among residents as the Omicron variant spread in the southern district, particularly in Invercargill.

Southland Hospital’s assessment, treatment and rehabilitation ward was closed to visitors and admissions after it was discovered patients in the ward had tested positive for Covid-19.

The origin of the infection was unknown and was under investigation, the SDHB said.