Attention shifts from US election to company reports

Chevron is one of several energy companies reporting before the US presidential election on...
Chevron is one of several energy companies reporting before the US presidential election on November 6. Photo by Reuters.
The pending arrival of Hurricane Sandy on the east coast of the United States has forced the cancellation of US presidential campaigning, with market attention turning to the release this week of some significant company reports.

President Barack Obama is reportedly holding a razor-thin lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

But before the November 6 vote, there are more key US corporate earnings to deal with from companies including Chevron, Visa, Starbucks and Ford Motors.

Earnings, and especially revenue, have proven to be lacklustre in the latest quarter, both falling short of expectations that were not particularly high at the start.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said this quarter's earnings were shaping up to be the worst in three years.

Just more than half of the Standard and Poor's 500 Index companies had so far reported, with 70% having beaten earnings estimates but just 41% beating revenue estimates.

Companies continued to use cost-cutting to boost profits because the fall in top-line sales was caused by weak demand.

Sectors that had beaten expectations for both earnings and revenue were financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary and telecommunications. Materials, energy and technology sectors had proved disappointing, he said.

"This week, there will be more of the same, including Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron, which should be interesting given the energy sector is expected to be one of the weakest."

Asked whether company profit reports would or could sway voters, Mr Timms said it was unlikely. However, if the company profits were strong and Mr Obama could point to an improving economy, there was a possibility of a "good news ending" to his campaign.

The US unemployment report was due on Friday and the median economist expectation was for 120,000 new jobs to have been added in October, compared with 114,000 last month.

"This is an important one given the proximity to the election and the focus on employment from the voting public."

When last month's unemployment rate came in lower than expected at 7.8%, the former chief executive of General Electric Jack Welch tweeted a suggestion the Obama administration had manipulated the number. This month, the unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 7.8%.

Reuters reported yesterday that the proportion of America's working-age population that was unemployed had fallen to 58.7% from 60.6% when Mr Obama took office in January 2009.

Mr Obama could counter that nearly 500,000 more Americans were in work today than when he became president and that five million jobs had been created since the December 2009 trough, according to the Bureau for Labour Statistics.

Mr Timms said the markets would prefer a Romney win, given the Republican policies were "generally" considered more business-friendly.

"But it looks like we might end up with the exact same political landscape that we already have - Obama president, Democrats with a narrow majority in the Senate and Republicans with a moderate majority in the House of Representatives."

The downside to that was ending up with the same sort of gridlock seen in the past year or two. That was concerning given the decisions that needed to be made later this year regarding the "fiscal cliff", Mr Timms said.

The best-case scenario would be the "grand bargain" where Congress agreed on new tax and fiscal policy. But it was more likely it would be put into the "too-hard basket" and most of it delayed for another year.

That did not remove the risk or uncertainty. It just delayed it, he said.

 

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