NZ's terms of trade tipped to keep falling

Jane Turner.
Jane Turner.
New Zealand's terms of trade are expected to fall further during the next six months, largely reflecting the lagged adjustment of export prices after falls already seen in spot prices.

Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday showed that the terms of trade - a measure of the "purchasing power" of New Zealand's exports - fell in the three months ended June.

The fall reflected lower prices for dairy, meat and wool and higher import prices for oil.

An increase in the terms of trade implies that more goods can be imported for each dollar of exports and is a net income boost for the country. The reverse is true for a fall in the terms.

ASB economist Jane Turner said the terms of trade peaked a year ago, reaching the highest level since the 1970s.

"While the terms of trade have since edged back by 6.8%, they remain at elevated levels. This underscores New Zealand's relatively healthy position in the global economy, particularly given our trade exposure to the Asia-Pacific regions, which also have held up relatively well."

In the June quarter, the terms of trade fell 2.6%Export volumes fell 0.4%, largely because of a fall in dairy, wool and seafood volumes.

Import volumes fell 3.1%, largely because of a fall in fuel imports. Excluding those, imports lifted 0.6%.

Ms Turner said fuel shipments were often irregular and volatile because of the timing of shipments arriving.

"Consumer and capital imports both increased, a positive signal about near-term domestic demand."

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