Ultimately, gaining community buy-in for adaptation will be the responsibility of local government, which will need to communicate critical information clearly to get people on board, the 269-page report by consultants Tonkin and Taylor for the Otago Regional Council says.
Lack of community buy-in is one of many risks posed by climate change, including to natural and built environments, the economy and population wellbeing over the next 100 years.
Otago regional councillors will consider the report, which is intended to give a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the province and help the council to anticipate and prepare, at the council’s information and data committee meeting today.
The report identifies the most significant climate change-related risks that could occur if emissions and warming continue as "business as usual", rather than the most likely scenario, which is that there will be emissions reductions and adaptation to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Local councils realised the importance of acting on adaptation, the report said, but communities were not yet on the same page.
Communicating technical knowledge, the risks and uncertainties surrounding the potential future changes to the community was a major challenge climate scientists and decision-makers would face.
As well as that, if only a small proportion of the community were pursuing adaptation while others avoided the issue, the former may feel "isolated and disempowered".
That could mean less pressure on government and other institutions to take climate action.
"This ability to influence this risk is considered to rest primarily with local government," the report said.
Other risks noted in the report, and which have been reported widely before, highlighted why the need for communities to act was critical.
More extreme and rare rainfall events, more rain, larger floods, warmer temperatures, more extreme hot days, and fewer frosts are all predicted.
The report also paints a not-so-pretty picture of the effects climate change will have on natural ecosystems, the economy, buildings and infrastructure.
All Otago ecosystems, terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine, were expected to be at extreme risk by 2090 if nothing was done, with drought, warmer water, flooding, changes in rainfall and reduced ice and snow all impacting, it said.
Farmers, winegrowers, and horticulturists, and their supply chains, would be impacted by more extreme weather events including fire, drought, flooding and landslips.
Fisheries and aquaculture would be hindered by water quality and water temperature changes.
Tourism would also take a hit as snow and ice reduced on the mountains and coastal areas eroded and flooded.
Electricity, solid waste, stormwater and wastewater networks, water supply and irrigation systems would be at extreme risk in 60 years’ time, and roads, railways and airports would not be immune to the effects of increased flooding and other extreme weather events.
Communities would, as a result, be rife with indirect social impacts including disruption to health services, social and economic factors including migration, housing and livelihood stresses, food security, socioeconomic deprivation and health inequality, including mental health and community health effects.
"The effects of climate change will not be spread evenly across Otago, exacerbating existing socioeconomic and health inequalities," the report said.
Councillors will be asked to endorse the data and report, and the presentation of the information to the public and stakeholders.
The report and its findings is expected to have widespread usage across the region by district and city councils and multiple sectors.
