And that projection - at a "best guess" - could get worse, depending on one-off factors, acting finance and funding general manager David Dickson told disappointed board members at their meeting in Dunedin.
Chief executive Carole Heatly told the meeting the situation had prompted the DHB to bring in accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers to advise its finance department. The firm would help determine why forecasts had been so wrong, particularly in May, and look at future projections. A report on the issue would be prepared for the audit and risk management committee and the board.
Mr Dickson said the latest blow was lower-than-expected interest rates on revenue earmarked for staff entitlement costs. Also, June's operating costs, while yet to be fully calculated, looked likely to be over budget.
Last month, the DHB predicted a $10.2 million deficit, which also disappointed board members, despite being close to the original forecast. Until about halfway through the financial year, the DHB looked likely to finish in a better position than originally forecast.
Board member Tim Ward said the board's confidence in the quality of financial forecasts had been damaged in recent months.
The board based spending decisions earlier in the financial year on those projections, when the situation looked on track to be much better, he said.
Board member Richard Thomson sought an assurance the deterioration would not affect the board's capital spending in 2012-13.
Mr Dickson was reasonably confident the situation would not affect future capital spending.
He said the board's cash position was $41 million once the $10 million one-off grant from the Government announced this week was added.
The financial fillip does not help the board's operating deficit, as it is calculated in a different way.
During a different part of the meeting, Ms Heatly said the board's restructuring programme was progressing well, and would lead to "synergy" and "clarity" across the organisation.
Designed to create a single structure rather than duplications in Invercargill and Dunedin, the restructure would be completed within six months.
