Market weakness seen in second quarter

Tom Bliss.
Tom Bliss.
After the phenomenal rise seen in the first quarter of the year, equity markets saw some weakness in the three months ended June.

Most markets remained in positive territory in the year to date, but there was unanimous weakness in the quarter as European political uncertainty and a synchronised slowdown in global growth was played out, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said yesterday.

The worst-case scenario was avoided at the Greek election, although positive sentiment did not return to markets as a result.

Spain and Italy, which were much larger than Greece, were also causing concern with borrowing costs rising and persistent economic weakness amid high unemployment.

Among the raft of weak international news, New Zealand and Australia had proven to be relatively bright spots, Mr Timms said.

New Zealand shares held up much better than most. Not surprisingly, European markers were one of the weakest performers in the quarter, falling 7%. Emerging markers were weaker still, as were Japanese shares. United States shares did not perform as badly, falling just 3.3% in local currency terms.

"New Zealand again proved to be a less volatile market, underpinned by solid dividend yields, falling just 3.1% in the quarter," Mr Timms said.

Forsyth Barr broker Tom Bliss provided a market performance wrap which showed Xero was the best-performing stock in both the June month and the June quarter, rising 22% in the month and 24.4% in the quarter.

"There was positive momentum associated with Xero's growth prospects in the US and Australia, in particular driving price. Inclusion in the NZX50 index may be exaggerating the price rise given Xero's illiquidity."

Forsyth Barr had a reduce on the share which it valued at $3.19 but last traded at $5.

Nuplex was the second-best performer in June with the share price rising 13.6% to $2.50.

Mr Bliss said Nuplex management expected the 2012 financial year earnings to be at the bottom end of guidance but the market was pleased there was no major profit warning announced.

New Zealand Oil and Gas had been hurt by its affiliation with Pike River but that had now been written off and the share price increased in June by 12.2%.

"Management has been embarking on road shows to improve company perception."

Diligent improved its share price by 9.4% to $3.72 in June and the NZX share price rose 8% to $1.35.

PGG Wrightson was the worst performed stock in June with its price falling 12.1% to 29c. A large seller in the market kept pressure on the share price, he said.

"There was nothing specific from the company but management reiterated its stance not to provide 2012 earnings guidance, leading to ongoing market uncertainty.

"While encouraging signs are now emerging from the company, it will take time to reverse the mismanagement of prior years," Mr Bliss said.

 

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