The Reserve Bank is widely expected to leave its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5% on Thursday, with a consensus of forecasters believing it will remain there until at least December.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the central bank had already acknowledged it had extended its expectation of the start of the rebuilding in Canterbury.
"Until reconstruction work gets under way in earnest, the domestic inflation picture will likely remain benign."
Recent economic data indicated the recovery continued at a very gradual pace, although there were some indicators that suggested increased household demand, he said.
That demand could pose a threat to the inflationary outlook and was something the Reserve Bank would monitor closely.
The international outlook, which had dominated the Reserve Bank's recent thinking, was slowly improving, Mr Tuffley said.
Progress had been made on dealing with the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and the European Central Bank's actions had eased liquidity.
While Europe's problems were far from over, the chances of a catastrophic deterioration in European and global growth appeared to be receding.
"We continue to expect the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold until December 2012."
