Aircraft and oil behind deficit

Jane Turner
Jane Turner
The importing of a large aircraft and strong oil prices pushed New Zealand's trade balance into an unexpected $200 million deficit in January when most commentators were expecting a surplus of about $167 million.

ASB economist Jane Turner said imports were boosted by the $214 million aircraft which was likely to be part of the Air New Zealand fleet upgrade.

Excluding the aircraft, the trade balance would have recorded a small surplus. Also contributing to the strength in imports was the strong demand for petroleum products.

"Due to the nature of shipments, these imports can be lumpy from month to month. Beyond these factors, imports were still on the stronger side of expectations."

Statistics New Zealand estimated that seasonally adjusted consumption imports increased by nearly 8%.

Ms Turner said that was consistent with strong electronic card transaction data through January, which together with strong import demand, suggested that underlying consumer demand had held up well following the Rugby World Cup-induced increase in spending.

Exports eased slightly in January but remained at "very elevated" levels. Dairy exports continued to perform well, with strong growing conditions combined with favourable international prices helping underpin strong export receipts.

A drop in crude oil exports was a large drag on export performance last month, Ms Turner said. Exports and imports of oil tended to be variable and the large drop was likely to be due to the timing of shipments.

Meat exports eased, largely due to another fall in volumes.

Seasonally adjusted meat exports by weight had remained extremely weak in the past three months, with the three-month average at the lowest since June 1999, Ms Turner said.

"Strong pasture growth may be encouraging farmers to hold back stock in order to increase weights. As a result, we could see a spike in export volumes in coming months."

Strong export prices for meat had provided some offset to weaker volumes in recent months, she said.

Strong export incomes were a key factor underpinning New Zealand's gradual economic recovery. The potential for a deterioration in the euro zone debt crisis continued to present downside risk to that outlook.

"Recent progress in stabilising the situation suggests some of this risk may have subsided slightly," Ms Turner said.

Last week, HSBC bank economists said New Zealand was on track to outperform global trade growth amid growing demand out of emerging nations in Latin America and Asia. The bank forecast annual trade growth of 5.9% for the next five years, beating worldwide expansion of 3.8%.

Exports to Australia, the country's biggest trading partner, rose 4.9% to $725 million in January, while sales into China surged 38% to $629 million.

Chinese imports rose 17% to $640 million, while New Zealand bought $472 million of goods from Australia, down 4.4% from January last year. China was the biggest source for annual import into New Zealand at $7.53 billion, eclipsing Australian goods worth $7.46 billion.

 

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