Investors get a lot to consider

The week ahead is looming as a large one for investors as several influential companies report their interim results starting with the NZX today.

Of most interest to investors will be Contact Energy tomorrow, Trade Me and Fletcher Building on Wednesday and Air New Zealand and Telecom on Friday.

Given the rising electricity prices already announced by some companies which are compensating already for higher transmission costs, Contact's six-monthly report will be closely scrutinised.

Forsyth Barr broker Peter Young said Contact was coming off a period of prolonged low earnings and was facing volatility due to potential index changes and initial public offerings (IPOs) from electricity generating state-owned enterprises.

However, there were signs of some earnings momentum.

Contact was trading at a large 32% discount to Forsyth Barr's valuation, he said.

"Our recommendation is accumulate."

Mr Young was forecasting group operating profit to rise 1.1% to $227.9 million in the six months ended December, with the reported profit to fall nearly 20% to $66.3 million on the previous corresponding periods.

Contact's ability to increase sales and offset customer losses had been impressive, he said. Contact increased total retail sales by 1.5% against the pcp, the only retailer to grow its load in the December quarter.

Contact had also done well at increasing customer numbers in the December quarter.

At June, Contact was losing 8000 customers a month following the Electricity Authority's "What's my number" campaign. Contact responded by increasing its discount to "Online on time" customers, resulting in gains of about 1000 per month, Mr Young said.

"We are expecting a modestly upbeat outlook statement for the second half with wholesale prices in January and February replicating the prices of 2008. Contact certainly needs a good second half to make up for the disappointment of the first half of 2012 and to show the market what it is capable of earning when conditions are finally in its favour," he said.

Forsyth Barr was forecasting Fletcher Building to report operating earnings of $374 million for the December six months, up 3% on the pcp.

Reported profit was expected to be down 6% to $155 million.

Conditions deteriorated sharply in the December quarter for the company, both in New Zealand and Australia. That led to market downgrades and concerns over the timing of the recovery, Mr Young said.

"There will be plenty of short-term negatives in the result but Fletcher's share price has already factored in this risk and we maintain a positive outlook heading into 2013."

The company offered good value at below $8 a share and Forsyth Barr had a buy on the shares, he said.

 

 

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