Instead, it is becoming clear the "plan" successive Governments ought to have developed from the early 2010s — when Rio Tinto suggested its commitment to New Zealand would be as good as the prevailing electricity prices — is a work in progress needing significant, and speedy, cross-agency work.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and a clutch of Government MPs visited Southland mayors yesterday against a backdrop of fighting talk from community and business leaders who continue to believe the owner of New Zealand Aluminium Smelters can still be convinced not to shut-up-shop.
Fight for Fairness campaign co-ordinator Carla Forbes noted the region would almost certainly get some financial support "in an era of splashing out money to the regions", but made it clear the Government needed to step up before the "narrow" window of opportunity closes.
Mrs Forbes may or may not have had an inkling the ministers would announce a suite of Provincial Growth Fund investments on their trip south yesterday but she was right to set such spending aside from that which must happen to help the region either retain smelter jobs or prepare for a post-smelter future.
It ought to be remembered the $25 million Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced to upgrade the Homer Tunnel has been a long time in coming, and is necessary to ensure the long-term viability and safety of a vital, busy and problem-plagued tourist link.
The $25 million for flood protection needed to be spent, especially after the Gore District floods last year. Loans allowing Alliance Group to convert venison processing to beef at Lorneville, and for Drysdale Hydroponics to expand, allow for growth that has already been identified.
It was also made clear NZ First leader Winston Peters’ was a lone voice in the Government when he suggested it buy the smelter to "give those who have the most stake in the success of the smelter, the people of Southland, the opportunity to directly benefit from owning and managing it".
Miss Ardern said this was not "the nature of the conversation that was had" with the southern mayors. It was "all about what happens next", and the need for a "transition".
Which brings us back to the need for a plan for a post-smelter economy that rises above the early but still appreciated promises to invest in aquaculture, agriculture and retraining.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson last week pointed to Taranaki, where work on a "just transition" from oil and gas to other industries has grown from detailed planning into real investments and jobs.
The Taranaki 2050 Roadmap has been developed by a mix of business, iwi, community, union, education and local and central government groups. It is best described as a whole-of-economy approach to the loss of a sector that might otherwise have cost parts of the region nearly all their economy.
Southern community leaders have already asked for more detail and union Etu, which was part of the Taranaki process, advocates a similar, interim approach for Southland.
This is worth exploring, quickly, but such a roadmap must be turbocharged for the southern situation. The south does not have until 2050 and its agencies will need help — financial help — to ensure they have the capacity and ability to make meaningful progress in a tight timeframe.
Meridian yesterday confirmed it was still talking to the smelter operator about a staged exit that may linger longer than the 14 months announced last week, but this might only buy the region a sliver of time.
The clock is ticking, and southerners should expect the next top-level ministerial visit to bring news — and funding — to help Southland plan for its future.
