Low interest environment seems set to continue

Traders signal orders in the two- and five-year pit at the Chicago Board of Trade, in Chicago....
Traders signal orders in the two- and five-year pit at the Chicago Board of Trade, in Chicago. Photo by Reuters.
The Reserve Bank seems unlikely to lift its official cash rate above 2.5% before sometime next year but that does not mean New Zealand borrowers will be immune from rising bank lending rates.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rise until late 2014, much later than it had previously said.

In a historic step that it said was a move towards greater transparency, the Fed announced an official target of 2% and for the first time published individual policy makers' forecasts for the federal funds rate.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard said that since the December monetary policy statement, financial market sentiment had improved slightly, with increased liquidity in European financial markets.

However, the global economy remained fragile and risks to the outlook remained.

World prices for New Zealand's export commodities had remained elevated but the recent appreciation of the New Zealand dollar was reducing the returns of exporters.

The European debt crisis had also increased the cost of internation funding which would likely pressure funding costs for New Zealand banks in the coming year.

"In the domestic economy, we continue to see modest growth.

Over recent months there have been signs of a limited recovery in household spending and the housing market. Further ahead, repairs and reconstruction in Canterbury will provide a significant boost for an extended period - though there may be further delays resulting from the aftershocks."

Reassuringly, inflation pressures had remained well contained. Inflation had fallen and now sat below 2%, Dr Bollard said.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the big issue for the Reserve Bank in the immediate term was about what was happening globally.

Generally speaking, the bank was understandably nervous about the global situation and the potential impact on domestic bank funding costs.

"If anything, the Reserve Bank sounded a touch less petrified that it was in December. Fingers crossed.

"We judge the Reserve Bank has today essentially watered down/delayed the OCR tightening schedule it outlined so well and wisely in December."

The BNZ was still picking September for a rate hike while the financial markets decided the OCR was going nowhere for the next 12 to 18 months, Mr Toplis said. In that regard, the perception the central bank might have ditched its tightening bias was largely irrelevant for traders.

Money market traders trimmed their odds of a near-term OCR cut and foreign exchange traders bid the New Zealand dollar upwards beyond that justified by the US dollar weakness on the back of the Fed's "dovish statement", he said.

In papers released by the Fed after its two-day policy meeting, policy makers showed a wide range of views about official interest rates. Three of the 17 expected rates would rise this year and two did not see any increase until 2016.

The biggest concentration of estimates was around 2014. The assurance rates would remain near zero for at least 18 months longer than previously believed was enough to drive a steep rally in US government bonds and push sharemarkets into positive territory.

Reuters reported that speaking at a news conference, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was cautious about recent improvements in the US economy and left the door open to further Fed bond purchases.

"I don't think we're ready to declare that we've entered a new, stronger phase at this point. If the situation continues with inflation below target and unemployment declining at a rate which is very, very slow, then ... the logic of our framework says we should be looking for ways to do more."

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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