The Reserve Bank is unlikely to lift its official cash rate (OCR) before December, but market observers will be carefully watching the tone of the statement to be released on Thursday by bank governor Alan Bollard.
In his December statement, Dr Bollard incorporated hefty cuts to the global and local economic outlooks.
"There is very little to add from the previous statement, which was reasonably open-ended in terms of the policy outlook," ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said.
"We expect the Reserve Bank will keep Thursday's statement brief and continue to keep its options open."
Despite five proposals and 15 summits among the European leaders since the first quarter of 2010, there was little sign yet of a clear resolution to their economic problems, he said.
The recent downgrade by ratings agency Standard & Poor's of nine European sovereigns highlighted the continued challenges faced by the region.
Adding to the uncertainty were various elections scheduled to be held across the euro zone during the first half of the year, including the French presidential election in April, Mr Tuffley said.
Recent activity indicators had been encouraging, especially in the United States. Although household spending remained weak, there were signs of a turnaround in the household sector, with the recent improvement in the US labour market.
Robust Chinese economic data had also quelled market fears of a global slowdown.
"For now, the global growth outlook is not as weak as the Reserve Bank forecast at the December Monetary Policy Statement," Mr Tuffley said.
Domestically, the recovery was continuing at a gradual pace.
Business confidence had eased in light of the uncertainty in offshore markets, but that was largely expected.
Economic growth was broadly in line with the Reserve Bank's expectations. Post-earthquake reconstruction was expected to provide a boost to the economy later in the year, but further quakes in Christchurch in December and January could check the rebuilding process, Mr Tuffley said.
"With current inflation pressures subdued, and considerable downside risks to growth, the Reserve Bank has no urgency to increase the OCR before December 2012," he said.
