The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion came across as "reasonable enough", consistent with expected economic growth, BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said yesterday.
"However, scratching beneath the surface reveals a slightly unpleasant whiff. This became all the more obvious with the evidence of increasing reliance on the province of Canterbury, and its rebuild, to drive the nation's growth. Oh, how the tables have turned."
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) released its quarterly survey yesterday which showed only moderate growth in the three months ended December.
Mr Ebert said clear divergences between Canterbury and the rest of the country were opening up with respect to most indices.
That very much included investment in buildings, plant and machinery, employment and the various capacity pressure gauges.
"At one level, of course, this is good news for Canterbury, as confirmation that at least some of the cogs are turing already and expected to do so further."
Indicative of that was reported trading activity in the region surged 18% in December from 9% in September. That left the rest of the country slowing to -7% in December, from flat in September.
Capacity utilisation edged up in the quarter to 90.2% but nationally, it was a mild move after consideration of the massive spike encountered by firms operating in Canterbury, he said.
Other cracks in New Zealand economy were more specific and trading reports were not encouraging.
But there were some positive aspects. It was worth emphasising the survey did not cover the rural sector well, only indirectly through food processing companies. The dominant dairy and meat-producing sectors were in fine fettle, with even Southland's drought concerns having been allayed.
"It's rare for New Zealand's economy to take a backwards step when its commodity base is doing so very well," Mr Ebert said.
