ANZ-National Bank senior economist Sharon Zollner said the fact there was only a very small rebound in November suggested the September and October weakness was not simply because the job market was on hold for the Rugby World Cup.
"The trend appears to be downwards. It appears something more fundamental is going on."
The series brings together both newspaper and online job advertisements.
The small rise was led by a 1.1% lift in internet advertisements while newspaper advertisements rose just 0.1%.
On a regional basis, Auckland rose the most at 3.2%, Christchurch rose 2.2% and Wellington lifted by 0.9%.
The smaller centres were weaker, dragging down the national aggregate, she said.
On a national level, the series focused on a weighted "composite" job advertisement series.
The composite measure had been calibrated to match changes in the unemployment rate as closely as possible. The calibration placed more weight on newspaper advertisements than online advertising by a factor of five to one.
Ms Zollner said the composite measure tracked changes in the unemployment rate closely, with a six-month lead.
The measure rose just 0.6% in November after falling nearly 9% over the preceding two months.
The three-month average had now turned downwards. That suggested the unemployment rate would likely fall over the next two quarters, given the employment rate in December 2010 was 6.7% and was currently 6.6%.
An unemployment rate of around 5.9% to 6.4% in March next year would be about in line with the historical relationship, she said.
However, the improving trend now looked under threat.
One possibility for the lack of a substantial rebound after the end of the Rugby World Cup could be businesses delaying employment decisions until after the election.
"Our guess is that concern about the outlook for growth in our trading partners is causing local firms to defer hiring plans until the picture becomes clearer," Ms Zollner said.
The Otago Daily Times is among newspaper sources for the job advertisement series.
