Otago economy failing to fire

The Otago economy seems barely warm, according to the latest ASB Main Report, with recent signs of stabilisation in the housing market rated as the only good news in the three months ended in September.

Otago gets two stars, rating between the "healthy" three stars and the "sad" one star.

Retail sales remained lower on year-ago levels, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said.

"Despite Dunedin's new stadium being an undoubted Rugby World Cup hit and the region experiencing a sudden influx of English tabloid journalists, guest nights remain weak and consumer confidence in the region remains low compared to the rest of the country."

Weak construction activity was contributing to Otago being subdued.

One highlight in New Zealand tourism arrivals was sustained strong growth in visitors from China. That would provide an ongoing opportunity for the region - and a more sustainable one than the niche created for bald-headed Englishmen, Mr Tuffley said.

Auckland, with four stars, continued to have a firm grip on the top spot in the rankings with construction activity, particularly non-residential, picking up considerably in the last quarter.

"As Auckland geared up for the Rugby World Cup, the number of jobs in the region increased strongly, as did retail sales.

"Although consumer confidence dipped slightly from a strong June quarter result, the overall level still remains on a par with most other regions," he said.

However, Otago proved to be in good company in the quarter, meeting the New Zealand average of two stars for the economy.

Also with two stars were Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Taranaki, Wellington, Marlborough, West Coast and Canterbury.

Tasman, Nelson and Southland received three stars in the quarter and Northland and Manawatu-Wanganui each received one star.

Mr Tuffley said Southland's resurgence in the rankings continued with consumer confidence in the region now the highest in the country.

There were good reasons for Southland's resurgence.

The increase in guests nights were much stronger over the past year relative to the rest of New Zealand. Employment growth had also been robust over the past year, he said.

The recovery in housing market activity had been more subdued relative to the rest of New Zealand and the weakness in retail spending and construction activity was weighing on the region.

"But the region's reliance on agriculture is a positive for the future given the strength of earnings. It is just a matter of time until that money starts to flow more readily into the region's tills."

 

 

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