Dunedin South MP David Benson-Pope, who yesterday was forced to resign from Cabinet, will have to wait until after the 2008 election before he has any chance of returning to the top table.
Even then, his chances depend on Labour leading the next government and Prime Minister Helen Clark remaining in the top job.
Any change of government or leader will all but remove his chances of a return.
He will be 58 at the next election and facing a new generation of MPs selected as part of Labour's renewal process.
Three years in the opposition, something Mr Benson-Pope has yet to experience, will not sit easily with an MP who has achieved much as a cabinet minister.
The embattled MP will spend the next few weeks weighing up his career options, even after the prime minister yesterday appeared to leave room for his return sometime in the future. If he decides to stick with politics and stand again, he seems assured of local party support.
What seems unlikely is a return to local body politics. He served as a member of the Dunedin City Council from 1986 to 2000 and in 1995 was the top polling councillor.
Friends and colleagues rallied yesterday in his support.
The man himself was not taking calls from the Otago Daily Times yesterday after he arrived home in Dunedin, but Health Minister and Dunedin North MP Pete Hodgson told the newspaper that Mr Benson-Pope was "staunchly loyal" to the city and the region.
"I have found him a capable guy prepared to front the tough issues. His competence has not been drawn into question by anyone. He has managed interesting portfolios to achieve quality results." However, the past couple of years had seen Mr Benson-Pope and his family subjected to more pressure and distress than some New Zealanders would think fair and reasonable, Mr Hodgson said.
"That has come with great sadness for me. While he is undoubtedly internally strong, I cannot help but think he is a victim of successive and corrosive allegations."
The latest problems stemmed from when Mr Benson-Pope did not give the full details from the outset, he said. Mr Benson-Pope had paid a high price for that but his reputation as an achiever remained intact. The issue he resigned over was as narrow as the perception of credibility, Mr Hodgson said.
Yesterday's drama started when Ms Clark announced the resignation at 11.30am.
Ms Clark said her chief of staff, Heather Simpson, and a senior minister had talked to Mr Benson-Pope on Thursday night to make clear his resignation was expected on the grounds he misled the public in his answers to reporters over the Madeleine Setchell affair.
It followed Mr Benson-Pope's late admission he offered an opinion to Environment Ministry head Hugh Logan on Ms Setchell's employment, despite several earlier denials.
"The way in which certain issues have been handled this week has led to a loss of credibility and on that basis I have accepted Mr Benson-Pope's offer to stand aside," Ms Clark said.
"I regret that this has happened because Mr Benson-Pope has been a capable and hardworking minister. Issues this week, however, leave no alternative," she said in a statement.
A few minutes later, Mr Benson-Pope issued a statement saying he believed he had served the community and his colleagues well.
He was not prepared to allow a sideshow to be prolonged, detracting from the issues the nation faced.
"I have had more than my fair share of personal abuse and attack from the opposition, their fellow travellers and parts of the media. No-one should underestimate the toll that this has on family members. I would urge opposition politicians to focus on policy not personality.
"My own family aside, there is nothing more important to me than the continued success of this Labour-led government led by Helen Clark, and it is for that reason I take this step today."