A planned shake-up of the Defence Force could end up putting under-equipped and under-trained personnel at risk, a defence expert says.
The Government's new Defence Capability Plan, announced today, involves spending $3 billion over 10 years to transform the entire force into a Joint Amphibious Task Force which would allow more personnel to be deployed for longer.
Defence Minister Wayne Mapp said there would be no new capital spending and funds for the plan would be reallocated from budgeted future depreciation payments.
The plan involves reconfiguring the Defence Force to allow the deployment of 800 personnel for up to three years, and upskilling an infantry unit to enable it to take part in special operations.
It also involves new advanced training aircraft for the air force and upgrading the Special Air Services (SAS) battle training facility in Papakura.
But Nick Nelson, acting director of Massey University's Centre for Defence and Security Studies, called the plan alarming.
The plan involved no new spending and the Defence Force would struggle to maintaining its existing equipment, he said.
"They're robbing Defence of money now to pay for future capital equipment, which is quite alarming,'' he said.
The Government was expecting to maintain the force's level of capability without being prepared to fund it, he said.
"I'm not sure that that's necessarily possible anymore, and I'm not even sure it's safe. We are potentially producing a force that is not going to be well-equipped and not well-trained and sending it on operations, so there are some real concerns with this,'' he said.
Mr Nelson said the plan was "purely cost-cutting''.
"At some stage, I think Defence is going to have to say 'OK, we are cost-cutting, what capabilities or what operational outputs would you like us to drop from this?'''
Mr Nelson said the plan also had personnel costs.
For every 800 people deployed overseas there would also need to be support staff, as well as another 800 people preparing for the next rotation and another 800 who had just returned from the previous rotation.
That would require the use of some 2500 people, at the same time as trying to meet existing requirements and without increasing the size of the force.
"Maybe they can do that, but I'd suspect that there are a number of people that will be deploying on two or three, maybe even more missions to be able to do that.''
The plan could hurt morale, Mr Nelson said.
"Certainly the feeling I'm getting from talking to some of the people within the forces is that there is a lot of uncertainty, morale is low, and I'm not sure that this is going to necessarily improve that.
"It's going to be very interesting to see what the impact is on personnel within the Defence Force. Over the last few years there's been kind of an understanding that we're going to do more with less, but I think we're getting to the stage now where we need to say we can only do less with less.''
Dr Mapp said the plan would guide decisions on frontline units, equipment and capabilities and took into account affordability, resources and defence priorities.
"The plan is not just a list of projects and equipment. Capability for the Defence Force is about transporting and sustaining a deployable Defence Force here and overseas.
"It is about using modern technology to give the entire Defence Force a common operating picture. And it is about ensuring our men and women in uniform are equipped to meet all the challenges they face, from combat through to disaster relief.''
