At the height of the exodus, 1399 Christchurch pupils were enrolled in schools around Otago, with the majority in Queenstown Lakes District (497) and Dunedin City (474).
Of the 121 pupils still enrolled in the Queenstown Lakes District, the families of 48 have decided to leave Christchurch for the foreseeable future and settle in the Queenstown/Arrowtown area.
As Christchurch gets back on its feet, the number of pupils enrolled in Otago has been slowly decreasing, and it was expected the majority of pupils would have returned to their own schools for the start of term two last week.
However, statistics gathered by the ministry last week showed 683 pupils (49%) remain in Otago schools.
Otago and Southland Secondary Principals' Association chairman Philip Craigie believed those remaining in Otago were likely to stay permanently.
"If anybody was going to go back to Christchurch, they would have gone at the end of term one.
"My guess is that if they have stayed this long, they may have made more permanent arrangements.
"A lot are staying with relatives here, and others have shifted with their families here permanently because their house in Christchurch has been condemned and their parents have managed to find work down here."
Mr Craigie said he had heard many senior pupils were staying in Otago schools because there would be less disruption to their education if they stayed.
He said some schools in Christchurch were sharing facilities - like pupils at Shirley Boys' High School, who were receiving lessons at Papanui High School while their school was rebuilt.
This situation would be challenging and disruptive for both pupils and teachers, he said.
"It's wonderful the way schools have supported each other, but when one school is using the premises in the morning and another is using it in the afternoon, the novelty must wear off after a while."
Mr Craigie said the initial exodus of Christchurch pupils put Otago schools under significant pressure, part of which was caused by not knowing how long they would be expected to accommodate the influx of pupils.
"But now that the numbers have eased, the pressure is probably much more manageable," he said.
