Employment figures out this week are expected to point to a continued improvement in the labour market after some wild gyrations during the past year.
Unemployment and wage data out last year was nothing but volatile with the unemployment rate see-sawing between 7.1% in December 2009, 6% in March and 6.9% in June before easing back to 6.4% in September.
Westpac economists are picking unemployment to drop slightly to 6.2% in the December 2010 quarter, helped by the start of the summer jobs season.
Senior economist Brendan O'Donovan said there had been a further improvement in the surveyed employment intentions of firms, pointing to employment growth of around 0.5% in the December quarter.
Assuming no change in labour market participation, that should give a further slight decline in the unemployment rate.
"Of course, the employment figures are volatile at the best of times and if recent history is anything to go by, what the headline number will be on the day is anyone's guess."
Looking at a broader range of data, there had been some signs of a slow-down in the labour market around the middle of last year in keeping with the broader weakness in the economy at the time, he said.
Seasonally-adjusted filled jobs from the quarterly employment series (QES) - an alternative, employer-based measure of employment with its own volatility, coverage and measurement issues - softened in September.
The part-time share of workers went up slightly, as did the share of part-time workers who were underemployed, Mr O'Donovan said.
"Overall, though, the picture is of a labour market that troughed early last year and should continue on a gradual trend of improvement in 2011.
Employment is up since the start of the year, hours worked have been increasing over the past three quarters, and alternative indicators of labour market slack have also improved."
