Business confidence starting to recover

Sharon Zollner.
Sharon Zollner.
Business confidence in New Zealand is starting to look up as headline confidence and firms' view of their own activity continue to recover from post-election lows.

The ANZ Business Outlook, released yesterday, showed a net 19% of businesses were pessimistic about the year ahead, versus 38% in December.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said all five sectors improved in February.

Retail firms were the closest to a positive outlook at -4%.

Firms' views of their own activity, which had the stronger correlation with GDP growth, lifted from 16 to 20.

''It's hardly a gold-medal performance given the historical average is 28, but it is no longer skating on thin ice.''

The economy was not breaking any records at present, she said.

A slower housing market, a small dip in net migration, difficulty finding credit and stretched construction and tourism sectors were making acceleration hard work.

Strong terms of trade and a positive outlook for wage growth were providing a push, Ms Zollner said.

The ANZ composite growth indicator, which combined business and consumer confidence, suggested economic growth of about 2% to 3%.

The ANZ was constructive on the medium-term outlook where incomes were supported by the strong terms of trade and higher wage growth

However, the bank was conservative in its productive growth assumptions and believed households needed to rebuild their savings, she said.

Confidence in the retail sector had continued to rebound despite cooling in the housing market. The sector now had the highest business confidence and and ''about average'' own activity outlook. It also reported the second-highest profits, behind construction.

Firms faced cost-push pressures but it remained a difficult environment for pushing through price increases outside the construction sector, Ms Zollner said.

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