The late 1970s oil shocks (1978), the after-effects of the 1987 equity market crash (1988), Asian crisis and droughts (1998), and the global financial crisis (2008) all triggered local downturns.
Those, in turn, had seen local interest rates and the New Zealand dollar fall.
''Time will tell whether a similar fate beckons for 2018,'' he said.
The ASB was in the process of updating its forecasts but had provided some initial observations on some of the key influences for 2018.
The global economy
A synchronised upswing was under way as the global economy emerged from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Mr Tuffley said.
Policy support had played a crucial role as historically low interest rates had pushed up global asset prices to eye-watering levels across most, if not all, asset classes.
Global sharemarkets were close to or at record highs.
Measures of market volatility were historically low. Despite increasing pressures on capacity, consumer price and wage inflation remained tepid for this stage of the economic cycle, he said.
''There are hopes the global upswing has become self-sustaining and less dependent on policy support, but this has not been fully tested.''
There was a risk if inflation finally stirred, asset prices would feel the brunt as interest rates moved towards historical norms.
Geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the US remain high.
''We have been here before and are wary of crying wolf.''
Finding a new growth driver for New Zealand
Some cyclical variables, including net permanent and long-term immigration, housing market and house price inflation had already peaked, Mr Tuffley said.
Others, such as construction sector activity, were facing capacity challenges which were making it difficult to meet strong demand without significant cost overruns.
The New Zealand economy was more than a one-trick pony and the historically high goods terms of trade, fiscal support and record numbers of overseas visitors were expected to support strong demand, he said.
The housing market
Stretched domestic affordability and policy measures to slow investor demand were running head-to-head with housing shortages, underbuilding and still-strong population growth in most of the major cities.
An imminent correction, even with low housing affordability, still looked some way off, Mr Tuffley said.
Working smarter
The New Zealand economy was in a sweet spot of low inflation, low unemployment and steady growth
but there were several events which could derail the expansion, he said.
The focus was typically on elevated equity markets, the Chinese economy and geopolitical risks, and high household debt levels/Auckland house prices.
Low productivity growth had long been the structural weakness of New Zealand.
Lengthening the expansion would entail working smarter when capacity constraints became more binding.
''Giving each other pay rises without corresponding increases in productivity is not a recipe for sustained growth.''
