More bank bail-outs`a concern'

Pedestrians pass an Anglo Irish Bank branch in Dublin. Another bail-out for the bank announced...
Pedestrians pass an Anglo Irish Bank branch in Dublin. Another bail-out for the bank announced last week brings its total government bail-out to 29-34 billion ($NZ53.7-62.9 billion).
The growing belief United Kingdom banks might need a further state bail-out next year was unlikely to trigger another global financial crisis, Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said yesterday.

"It's more of a concern than a crisis, although these things have a habit of starting small and ending up big."

However, governments around the world were determined to take whatever action they could to ensure the global banking system remained intact, he said.

The New Economics Foundation think tank says the borrowing requirements of British banks could hit 25 billion ($NZ56 billion) a month next year.

The think tank said it had examined Bank of England data and concluded many UK banks appeared to face a funding "cliff".

Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds had to be partly nationalised as they ran up huge losses during the credit crisis while others, such as Barclay's and HSBC, had benefited from cheap credit from the central bank.

Reuters reported that UK banks had a January 2012 deadline to repay 185 billion they borrowed from the Bank of England against 287 billion of illiquid assets.

Mr McIntyre said the banks also faced further pressure from new Basel III banking industry rules, due to be phased in by January 2019, which would require banks to hold more capital.

The main requirement of the new Basel rules was for banks to have a minimum Tier 1 capital ratio of 7%.

Many banks had Tier 1 ratios above that but the Basel III regime was much stricter.

"There is a dichotomy between the good banks and the bad in the UK.

"The good are very good and the bad are terrible.

"The Basel rules are not a problem in the southern hemisphere, as capital rating rules have been put in place and banks are well funded."

Mr McIntyre believed there was such a united front among central bankers that it was unlikely banks would fail.

Each government seemed prepared to continue with a stimulus package if banks showed signs of failing.

The Irish Government moved yesterday to take a great say in the day-to-day running of the state's largest bank, Allied Irish Bank (AIB), with the appointment of outside consultants to work with management before the bank moved into state control.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said last week the Government would take a majority controlling stake in the bank.

The Government is expected to nationalise AIB over coming months, making the bank the fourth institution to fall into State hands.

A sale of new shares in AIB will be underwritten by the Government in a move expected to increase the state's ownership to a stake of more than 90% from less than 19%.

Ireland revealed it faced a bill of up to 50 billion ($NZ94 billion) to clean up its banks, equating to over 11,000 per head of a recession-weary population.

Mr Lenihan promised Ireland had arrived at the endgame for dealing with massive property losses but warned years of pain lay ahead for taxpayers.

Mr McIntyre said the world was through the worst of the bank crisis but there could be some surprises still to come.

The key things to watch for included the margin spreads on government stock, the cost of funding and the bond tenders.

If the tenders were not well subscribed, or if China failed to participate, it would be much harder for governments to raise funds.

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