The Reserve Bank is not expected to change its official cash rate on Thursday, although governor Graeme Wheeler is expected to strike a cautious and neutral tone in his statement.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said forward guidance from the Reserve Bank was likely to be "relatively nonchalant'', reiterating numerous uncertainties.
The need for the New Zealand dollar to fall would be reinforced.
"While the bank's interest rate projection will be lifted a touch, that will be about removing the small implied chance of an additional cut presented in November.
"We suspect various upside and down side scenarios will be used to emphasise the neutral tone - and the skew of risks around it.''
In many ways, it seemed like a great deal had changed since the central bank's November statement, he said.
Headline inflation had returned to the bank's 1% to 3% target band for the first time in two years and some measures of core inflation were back at, or close to, 2%. Inflation expectations had stabilised or risen and evidence of capacity pressures had intensified, with the exemption of the December labour market figures.
The global economy was looking firm and the United States Federal Reserve was talking about three rate rises this year, while other central banks were hinting at less inclination to ease.
Fiscal expansion had gained greater prominence, Mr Bagrie said.
"This is occurring at a time when the domestic economy continues to march along at a pace well above trend. Given the above, it is not surprising the market is pondering the prospects of rate hikes.''
A full interest rate increase was priced in by November. An OCR at record low levels, and projected by the Reserve Bank to remain that way for the foreseeable future, had become hard to justify, he said.
The ANZ doubted the Reserve Bank was ready to fully embrace that view just yet.
With the New Zealand dollar sitting 4% above its November projections, wage growth remaining sticky at low levels, the unemployment rate rising in December, retail banks lifting mortgage and deposit rates, housing market activity cooler than six months ago and a number of global uncertainties and risks remaining, caution should remain a central theme, Mr Bagrie said.
The fact the Reserve Bank had to reverse two attempts at tightening cycles since 2009 was also a factor.
