The chief executive of New Zealand Merino (NZM) said the world might want more protein and the Chinese economy was booming, but he doubted our combative, commodity-based, price-driven selling system would deliver the riches many expected - let alone what could be possible.
"It's not what we're selling, its how we're selling it."
The sheep industry has to change to survive, he said, its products branded to incorporate the social and environmental values demanded by affluent consumers and for which they will pay more.
To achieve that, he intends replicating NZM's fine-wool marketing model for sheep meat, lanolin, leather and sheep milk, either in partnership with existing players or by themselves, not only to realise the potential of those products, but also to ensure an industry, written off by many, has a future.
Planning is still at an early stage, and funding from the Government's Primary Growth Partnership announced last week will flesh out the plans over the next five years with input from marketing and business experts from Stanford University.
NZM proposes marrying science and marketing to grow production of fine wool and create a multipurpose fine-wool sheep from economically and environmentally sustainable farms, with the company then using its marketing skills to target products at affluent, discerning customers.
Mr Brakenridge said having a product that added value to a retailer would give producers greater negotiating power.
"The more value we provide these market niches, the more the demand, and therefore we can capture more of that value."
He gave the example of the contract price for fine wool supplied to SmartWool being reached at auction only four years in the past 14 years, evidence that SmartWool saw value in the product other than just price.
"The relationship is not just one of price. The more intrinsic merino story is with the brand."
Ultimately, Mr Brakenridge wants to grow the volume of fine wool to meet unsatisfied demand, but in the process create a more productive animal that can be brand marketed.
"This is about investing in greater production, talking to people in marginal areas who can shift to fine wool production, investing money in research and development and technology transfer and some sort of strategic aspirations that starts with marketing and see if we can produce the perfect multipurpose animal that is market led."
Before NZM's formation in the late 1990s, the fine-wool sector was split between a number of groups who largely worked in isolation.
NZM brought together under one roof wool marketing, commercial and administration functions, research and development and now has a market share up about 85% and contract-sells about 51% of the New Zealand's 10,000-tonne merino clip at prices well above recent auction values.
Mr Brakenridge said NZM had decided not to source wool from overseas to satisfy demand.
Instead, he intended persuading more New Zealand farmers to grow finer wool by lifting the overall income from sheep.
He said nearly everyone with an allergy to cow's milk could drink sheep's milk and there were opportunities from the growing baby and infant formula market.
Lanolin was exported in bulk in drums, but branded 100% lanolin products the size of a lipstick tube sold for $NZ70.
The free range mountain environment merino sheep roam, lent itself to target marketing of merino meat, while exotic car manufacturers already used sheep leather. There were also opportunities for nutriceuticals.
World markets were changing and New Zealand had to change with them or risk being left behind.
In the United States alone, the consumer segment identified as prioritising lifestyles focused on health and sustainability (Lohas), is estimated at 215 million people and worth $NZ300 billion.
They favour products identified as being healthy, kind to the environment, promoting social justice, personal development and sustainable living, and Mr Brakenridge said Lohas were spreading to Europe and Asia.