Election 2011: The winners and the losers

~ WINNERS ~

LABOUR

Damien O'Connor: After pulling out of his party's list, won back the West Coast Tasman electorate by 2287 votes. Green candidate Kevin Hague urged his supporters to vote for O'Connor.

Iain Lees-Galloway: Held on to Labour's sole remaining provincial seat of Palmerston North despite the party vote going to National.

Rino Tirikatene: Newcomer won the Te Tai Tonga Maori electorate back for Labour from the Maori Party by 1445 votes.

David Clark, Megan Woods and Andrew Little: Labour's new faces.


NATIONAL

Jonathan Young: Held on to New Plymouth votes against Labour's Andrew Little. Young increased his majority from 105 in 2008 to 4130.

Nikki Kaye: Held on to Auckland Central by 535 votes against challenge from Labour's Jacinda Ardern.

Maggie Barry, Ian McKelvie, Mark Mitchell, Simon O'Connor, Mike Sabin, Scott Simpson, Alfred Ngaro, Jian Yang: National's new faces.


ACT NEW ZEALAND

John Banks: Won Epsom by 2485 votes.


GREENS

Eugenie Sage, Jan Logie, Steffan Browning, Denise Roche, Holly Walker, Julie Anne Genter: new list MPs.


NZ FIRST

Winston Peters: Has seven new MPs - Tracey Martin, Andrew Williams, Richard Prosser, Barbara Stewart, Brendan Horan, Denis O'Rourke and Asenati Taylor.

 

~ LOSERS ~

LABOUR

Carol Beaumont: List MP who lost seat due to Labour's low result. Beaten in Maungakiekie electorate by National's Sam Lotu-Iiga by 2878 votes. Next in line to return to Parliament if another list MP resigns.

Kelvin Davis: Was tipped for big things but did not make it back on the list. Did well in Te Tai Tokerau electorate, reducing Hone Harawira's majority from 6308 in 2008 to just 874. Second in line to return to Parliament.

Carmel Sepuloni: List MP who did not make it back. Put up a strong fight against Paula Bennett in Waitakere, losing by 349 votes.

Rick Barker: Party whip too low on list to return. Stood in safe National seat of Taranaki King Country, won by National's Shane Ardern.

Stuart Nash: Was too low on the list to return. Is considering whether to make another tilt at it in 2014.

Steve Chadwick: Out of Parliament due to low list ranking. Stood in Rotorua, where National's Todd McClay increased his winning margin by about 1000 to 6867.

Clayton Cosgrove: Lost Waimakariri to National's Kate Wilkinson by 395 votes. Returns on Labour's list.


NATIONAL

Paul Quinn: Is the only 2008-2011 National MP not to get back into Parliament, courtesy of low list placing. Beaten in Hutt South by incumbent Labour's Trevor Mallard.


MAORI PARTY

Rahui Katene lost the Te Tai Tonga seat to Labour's Rino Tirikatene by 1445 votes.

Six reasons why National won

1. Stability rules, OK?
The election was won - and lost - long before the official campaign started. National's support may have slipped during the campaign, but it remained at historic highs. Labour's plumbed new lows. The electorate's conservative streak saw parties of that ilk picking up nearly 60% of the vote.

National played to that sentiment by promising stable, pragmatic government.

Labour could not compete. It had to have points of difference. But its big-ticket reforms were out of sync with the mood of the majority of voters. Labour needed to define this as a "change election". It never had a hope of doing so.

2. It's the economy, stupid.
Uncertain economic times meant voters opted for the finance team they knew, rather than one of which they were barely aware.

The final pre-election Herald-DigiPoll survey showed voters favouring National by two to one over Labour when asked which party would be best at running the economy. That poll has consistently shown between 55% and 60% of voters think the Government is moving in the right direction.

3. The Key phenomenon.
John Key may be immensely popular but, crucially, he's also trusted by voters.

National struggled to cope against Helen Clark when her ratings reached similar highs. Likewise Labour with Mr Key.

The Prime Minister's flaws may have been exposed by the "teapot tape" saga but Key could draw on big reserves at the Bank of Credibility to compensate.

4. The "let's give them another go" principle.
New Zealanders rarely turf out a Government after just one term - unless, of course, it has performed really badly.

Steven Joyce, who was in charge of National's campaign, summed it up when he said yesterday that people thought National had done a pretty good job given it had been dealt a tough hand.

As Mr Joyce's Labour counterpart Grant Robertson acknowledged, Labour was "fighting history".

5. Labour's spending plans.
"Debt" was a four-letter word in this election. National was very careful about committing to new spending.

Labour was also careful, producing extensive costings and revenue forecasts. The numbers may have added up in Labour's mind; they did not in voters' minds.

6. The Goff factor.
Labour's leader needed to connect with voters three years ago - not three weeks ago. Mr Goff may have been judged to have won the election campaign, but he lost the war. Labour shed more than 165,000 votes on election night 2008.

- Compiled by John Armstrong, of The New Zealand Herald


 

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