Kevin Joseph Charles Little, 45, told the Parole Board in January he had completed all his rehabilitative treatment and could be safely released.
But board chairman Sir Ron Young disagreed.
"We do not think [psychological services] have got to the core of the issues that concern us in terms of his risk because in the end there is no answer to the question of why he killed the child and what were the factors going through his mind at the time of the killing."
In 2006, Little killed his 7-month-old daughter Alyssa at their home in Nelson.
At trial, he claimed he had slipped while taking the baby for a bath, been knocked unconscious and the baby had been inadvertently submerged.
But a pathologist said the injuries to the victim were commonly associated with life-threatening asphyxia by facial or neck compression.
A geophysicist also cast doubt on Little’s version of events, telling the jury it was highly unlikely Alyssa could have fallen into the bath as he described.
The background to the death provided further suspicion.
Little’s partner, Chontelle Murphy, had sought a separation but the defendant had refused to leave their flat.
Two days before killing his daughter, he was served with legal papers ordering him to leave the property and granting custody of Alyssa to Ms Murphy.
The sentencing judge put the murder down to a "moment of madness".
But Little told the Parole Board there was no animosity between him and his partner at the time.
Sir Ron described that as "surprising".
The Parole Board heard Little had done more than 13 sessions with a psychologist and "developed insight" into his issues.
A safety plan provided to the board identified "toxic relationships, overwork, stress, withdrawing, self-sabotage and being in a parental role" as high risks and focused on his feelings of stress, anxiety, irritation, shame and grief.
Sir Ron, however, said Little remained an undue risk.
He will appear before the board again in January next year.
