Beef + Lamb chief insight officer Julian Ashby said the Beef + Lamb Stock Number Survey provided an assessment of New Zealand’s sheep flock and beef cattle herd at the end of June this year.
The report shows the breeding ewe flock continues to decline with a 0.9% reduction, following a 5.2% reduction last year.
"The breeding flock is the key indicator of the future flock size. It’s trending down and is expected to continue to decline. One of the contributing factors is land-use change.
"The amount of sheep and beef farmland being converted to forestry, along with the cumulative impact of a range of other policies on farm viability, is concerning."
An updated analysis of land-use change from pastoral farming to large scale forestry released by Beef + Lamb in July showed more than 200,000ha of sheep and beef farms had been sold into forestry in the last five years.
This was now being reflected in livestock numbers, he said.
"We have been saying for some time that there needs to be specific limits on the amount of forestry that can be used to offset fossil fuel emissions in the Emissions Trading Scheme."
Beef + Lamb was not anti-forestry, he said.
‘‘We know many farmers are interested in integrating trees into their farms, but there must be some balance."
The number of breeding ewes to the ram in Otago-Southland decreased to 4.99million head, the first time breeding ewe numbers dipped below 5 million in the region.
The trend was most evident in Southland, where numbers dropped 1.3%, the impact of fewer ewe hoggets retained as replacements last season contributing. In contrast, breeding ewe numbers were stable in Otago.
The forecast for lambing nationally was expected to slightly increase this spring, following favourable autumn conditions for ewes at mating, to 20.36 million.
In Otago-Southland, ewe pregnancy scanning was only partially completed when the stock number survey was undertaken and early results were mixed. Some farms reported excellent results, while others were disappointed.
There was optimism among farmers that scanning percentages would have increased this season because ewes were on a rising plane of nutrition and putting on condition on most farms as the ram went out.
Some farmers indicated the impacts of two years of drought might have had a long-term effect on ewe fertility.
Beef + Lamb economic service chief economist Andrew Burtt said this was good news for both farmers and exporters and followed favourable autumn conditions for ewes at mating.
However, the number of total beef cattle was estimated at 3.81million, down 2.4%, at the end of June this year.
"The number of breeding cows and heifers increased 1.1%, with the South Island, mostly, leading the increase. Breeding cow numbers lifted as farmers chose to reduce weaner and trading cattle numbers.
"The number of beef cattle weaners decreased 3.2% overall, but Southland farms bucked the trend and replenished weaner numbers by more than 20% following two years of dry conditions."
In Otago-Southland, total numbers increased 7.3% to 470,000.
