The 1News Kantar Public poll, released tonight, has National on 37 per cent, up 3 points on its last poll two months ago. Labour was on 35 per cent, down 1 point. Act remained on 11 per cent.
National would bring in 47 seats on those numbers. Add to that the 15 seats from Act and it makes 62 seats and enough to form a government.
A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori combination only reached 58 seats.
The Green Party had dropped significantly, dipping by 4 points to just 7 per cent; this would result in just 9 seats in Parliament. NZ First was steady at 3 per cent, while Te Pāti Māori was down 1 point to 2 per cent.
In the preferred Prime Minister race, current leader Chris Hipkins dropped two points to 25 per cent, while National’s Christopher Luxon had a 1 point bump to 18 per cent. Act’s David Seymour was in third at 7 per cent, with NZ First’s Winston Peters and the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick also featuring.
Four minor parties reached 1 per cent in the latest poll: The Opportunities Party, Democracy NZ, Cannabis Party and New Conservative.
The poll was conducted between Saturday and yesterday, meaning those polled would have had at least two days to absorb the Government’s Budget 2023 and give their verdict.
A total of 1002 people were polled. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1.
Hipkins told 1News that many people would need time to digest what was in the Budget, delivered last week.
“Many people won’t have even heard what was in the Budget yet. The single biggest thing that middle-income earners are looking for is inflation getting back under control and interest rates coming down again over time.”
Luxon’s preferred Prime Minister ratings has fallen from 25 per cent to 18 per cent since last year, but he told 1News he was working on that by getting out into the regions.
Seymour said the poll indicated Luxon was improving and was on a “steep learning curve”.
“I just look forward to growing the Act Party so that we can have a government not only of change, but real change.”
The poll was taken after former Green Party MP Dr Elizabeth Kerekere left the party after concerns were raised about her conduct towards other MPs and staff.
Greens co-leader James Shaw told 1News he didn’t think Kerekere’s exit had led to the party’s poor poll result, instead saying smaller parties were often starved of attention around the Budget.
Hipkins had gone straight from zero to 23 per cent as preferred Prime Minister while outgoing leader Jacinda Ardern plummeted immediately to just 5 per cent. Luxon had dropped slightly to 22 per cent.
Act was on 10 per cent (down 1), the Green Party on 7 per cent (down 2) and NZ First had dropped back to 2 per cent (down 2). Te Pāti Māori was on 1 per cent.
Tonight’s results also reflect people’s feelings towards National this month ruling out working with Te Pāti Māori in any kind of arrangement after the general election.
The most recent Newshub Reid Research Poll was conducted during the time Luxon made the decision, but the impact of the move should become more clear through tonight’s poll.
Newshub’s poll, published on May 14, showed Te Pāti Māori in the kingmaker position, with neither Labour-Greens or National-Act able to form a government.
In that poll, Labour was at 35.9 per cent, down 2.1 points. National was trailing just behind on 35.3 per cent, down 1.3 points. Act was largely unchanged on 10.8 per cent and the Greens were unchanged at 8.1 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori registered a small jump of 1.7 points to 3.5 per cent so would require an electorate win to enter Parliament. New Zealand First rose 0.8 points to 3 per cent, while the Opportunities Party reached 2 per cent with a 0.5-point boost.
On those numbers, a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori coalition would reach 61 seats - enough to form a government.
Hipkins maintained his position as preferred Prime Minister at 23.4 per cent, up 3.8 points. Luxon was behind on 16.4 per cent, down 2.4 points.
The poll also asked people whether they felt the two Chrises were in touch with issues affecting New Zealanders. It found 50 per cent thought Hipkins was in touch while 35.6 per cent thought he was out of touch. It was near the opposite for Luxon, with 37.2 per cent and 47 per cent, respectively.
The general election will be held on October 14.
