Researchers say New Zealand needs to act now to boost food and fuel resilience for such an event.
Co-author and University of Otago (Wellington) public health researcher Prof Nick Wilson said building capacity for biofuel production would not only safeguard New Zealand’s food supply in the event of a global disaster, but also make the nation’s fuel supply more resilient to lesser shocks.
But planning and investment were needed well ahead of any crisis to secure those benefits.
The study estimated the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population in the absence of trade, caused by global disasters.
The research details how it would be feasible for New Zealand to make enough biodiesel from locally grown canola to power agricultural machinery, should fuel imports cease — and how without such investment, food could soon run short.
Lead author and Adapt Research founder Dr Matt Boyd, of Reefton, said the research put a focus on the value of investing now to get ahead of risks that were rising globally.
"There is simply not enough diesel fuel held locally for New Zealand to ride out a protracted catastrophe, or even a protracted fuel shortage.
"We need to act now to secure local food production against global catastrophes."
At present, the canola grown in places such as Canterbury is only used for producing oil for food purposes.
However, Prof Wilson said the study considered the option of expanding canola cultivation to allow production of enough biodiesel to run the farm machinery that then produced enough food to feed all New Zealanders after a catastrophe.
The study considered the example foods of wheat, potatoes and dairy, wheat production requiring the least amount of biofuel to produce, harvest and transport to refineries.
"In the long term, agricultural machinery is likely to all become electrified — but we need assured capability to run diesel-powered farm machinery for quite a number of years.
"Our findings also offer a road map for countries worldwide, to evaluate their agricultural resilience and take decisive steps toward self-sufficiency."
The potential to also enhance fuel supply resilience was highlighted by New Zealand’s complete dependence on fuel imports, he said.
There was just 21 days worth of diesel in the country at any given time, he said.
"The biofuels option could form part of wider plans for food and energy resilience and needs to be assessed against alternatives in that context."
