The woes of New Zealand businesses are likely to be on display again this morning when the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research releases its Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion.
BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said there were no prizes for guessing the survey would offer a shakier view on the economy than it did three months ago.
The question was, how much worse?
``Still, we don't expect the survey's activity reports to entirely lose the plot. After all, we remain of the view GDP growth picked up in the second quarter as the specific factors holding back the first quarter righted themselves.''
Last week's economic data aided that view.
There were positive signs in May's merchandise trade and, in particular, consents, he said.
The ANZ Job Ads, out tomorrow, would be scrutinised to see if they kept the ball rolling.
Even if the GDP path was looking shakier from now on, it paid not to assume it was necessarily disinflationary, Mr Ebert said.
The survey's rich information on capacity constraints, costs and pricing could well keep highlighting inflationary ``screws'' were integral to the problems - as would the plethora of Government policy changes in train.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said three months ago, the quarterly survey reflected only a marginal improvement in business confidence after sentiment fell into negative territory for the first time in two years just after last year's election.
Inflation pressures eased and trading activity expectations were flat.
Based on what was incorporated in the ANZ Business Outlook in recent months, those trends were expected to continue, he said.
The survey had remained an important indicator of economic growth.
GlobalDairyTrade auction prices were expected to remain unchanged overnight. A fortnight ago, whole milk powder prices fell 1%. Futures pricing suggested whole milk powder prices would fall this week. The fall might be tempered as increases in tariffs on US dairy imports might boost demand for ``relatively cheap'' New Zealand dairy products, Mr Timms said.
The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision was due today at 4.30pm. The cash rate was expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%
``Markets will be interested in any comments regarding rising global risks, the recent slowdown in house prices and recent solid growth data we have seen out of Australia.''
The minutes from the most recent US Federal Reserve meeting would be released on Friday morning. At the last meeting, the Fed increased interest rates by 0.25%, taking the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to a target range of 1.75% to 2%.
Mr Timms said the Fed painted an upbeat picture of the economy, raising growth forecasts for 2018 from 2.7% to 2.8%, reducing the year-end unemployment estimate from 3.8% to 3.6% and increasing inflation forecasts from 1.9% to 2%.
Also on Friday, the latest monthly jobs report was due from the US. Markets were expecting a ``healthy'' 195,000 new jobs to have been created in June, in line with the 12-month average but down from the 233,000 created last month.
The US unemployment rate was expected to remain at 3.8%, the lowest since April 2000, Mr Timms said.
