Trump last night claimed victory after Fox News projected that he had defeated Democrat Kamala Harris, which would cap a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House.
Other news outlets had yet to call the race for Trump, but he appeared on the verge of winning after capturing the battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia and holding leads in the other four, according to Edison Research.
University of Otago professor of international relations Robert Patman said Trump’s victory over Harris was remarkable on several levels, not least the fact he was a convicted felon and a defeated incumbent in the 2020 United States presidential election.
"You’ve got to acknowledge this is an incredible political comeback — despite the fact that he’s a convicted felon, he indirectly led an insurrection on January 6, 2021, and nothing seems to stick with him."
Trump read the public mood astutely, Prof Patman said.
"I think he also got his message out to working class Americans.
"He said, ‘Are you better off today and after four years of President Joe Biden than you were when I was in office?’
"It’s not necessarily the Democrats’ fault. There was a war in Ukraine that put global food prices up — but many people’s groceries around the world have gone up and when people ask that question, they tend to associate high prices and the cost-of-living crisis with the Biden administration."
Trump’s victory would mean "on the face of it, bad news for Ukraine", Prof Patman said.
"He signalled that he would cut off all aid to Ukraine, but bring peace.
"Well, the way he would do that probably would be to say to his old friend in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, you can keep the territory you’ve got, but you’ve got to stop now — but that would be a little consolation to Ukraine, who have lost 20% of their territory."
Small liberal democracies such as New Zealand should take heed.
"There may be a few ideologues in the current government who think it’s good news, but just wait until our exporters start encountering 20% tariffs or 10% tariffs in the US.
"It’s probably good news for authoritarian states around the world, because Mr Trump doesn’t believe in multilateralism, which is a keystone of New Zealand’s foreign policy, irrespective of who’s running the government in this country.
"So, for smaller and middle powers, it’s a chilling prospect, because Mr Trump’s international vision is that great powers should run the world ... basically his philosophy is that small and middle powers have to look after themselves."
The United States now has a president that did not share a belief in the rules-based international order, which had been the American position for much of the post-war period, Prof Patman said.
"It does put a big onus on Australia and New Zealand not only to collaborate with each other more closely, but also other liberal democracies, perhaps other than the United States."
Asked about other successful facets of Trump’s campaign, Prof Patman pointed to his courting and use of X (formerly Twitter) owner Elon Musk and podcaster Joe Rogan.
"So, in a sense, the Trump message was getting circulated massively on social media."
Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate in July, ran a very good campaign, Prof Patman said.
However, he also said Harris did not distance herself from Biden’s "disastrous" policies towards Gaza, "therefore Arab-Americans all voted for Trump because he did a deal with them".
"I think one of her tactical blunders was not to set out enough of what she wanted, and she may have felt paralysed by the fact that she was vice-president to an administration which was still in session."
Because Trump was "so unpredictable", there would be unknown factors.
"Mr Trump has made absolutely no bones about the fact that he’s going to go after what he calls his political enemies after the election, once he’s won it."
