Two years from today, the All Blacks will play their opening game in the World Cup in England. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn looks into the crystal ball and determines who will - or will not - be in the squad.
FULLBACK
Sure thing: Israel Dagg. At this level, always comes to the party. Has all the skills of a fullback, including a big punt. Will be on cruise control for the Crusaders for the next couple of seasons.
Good chance: Charles Piutau. Explosive, strong and plenty of skills. But honeymoon period is over and needs to back up a good start to career.
Roughie: Benji Marshall. Can he live up to the hype? Probably not. Best years are behind him, and he may have spent too long in league. Also, he has a dog's name.
WING
Sure things: Julian Savea. Appears to have found some consistency. Big, strong and fast - at the moment, anyway. Needs to sort out who he is playing for at Super 15 level. Ben Smith. Has not played a bad game in past two years and his utility value is gold. May be looked at further infield.
Good chance: Cory Jane. Had a serious knee injury and will be interesting to see if he can get back to his best. Becoming a television personality, which is always a worry for on-field performances.
Roughie: Patrick Osborne. Can look a million dollars. Big and strong but an average defender.
Knackers yard: Zac Guildford. At 24, is Guildford's career over already with the All Blacks? Other issues cloud his future. Richard Kahui. There is talk of him coming back from Japan for a stint at glory but with shoulders like glass, it is hard to see him being up to the physical challenge.
CENTRE
Sure thing: Conrad Smith. Has never played a bad game in the black jersey and shows no sign of slowing down. Will be well rested after a break at the end of this year.
Roughies: Robbie Fruean. Will be interesting to see how he comes back from heart surgery. Adam Whitelock. That name must give him a chance. But hell would have frozen over if he gets in the squad.
Knackers yard: Tamati Ellison. Has taken himself off the playlist.
SECOND FIVE-EIGHTH
Sure thing: Sonny Bill Williams. The man will walk back into the All Blacks.
Good chance: Ma'a Nonu. The enigma. Viewed as a Ferrari by the All Blacks and a Hillman Hunter by Super 15 sides. Whatever happens, it will be a soap opera. Francis Saili. Mixed debut and one wonders if he has any big weapon to make the jump. Ryan Crotty. Much like Saili. Runs hard but doubt over whether he has the goods to make the next leap. Tom Taylor. Has done nothing wrong but hardly gets the pulse racing. Could play closer to the scrum.
FIRST FIVE EIGHTH
Sure things: Aaron Cruden. Has made the step up and appears to be still improving. Beauden Barrett. Looks to have the qualities of a top first five-eighth. May even now know how to tackle.
Good chance: Dan Carter. On form, and fit, cannot be matched. But has taken more hits than a squash court wall. Can his creaking and ageing body survive?
Roughies: Gareth Anscombe. Has talent and can kick goals. Why not? Hayden Parker. Ditto.
Knackers yard: Colin Slade. Every Highlanders fan knows he will go back to the Crusaders and look a million dollars. Does not seem fair. Surely cannot get back in the black jersey.
HALFBACK
Sure thing: Aaron Smith. Has the qualities needed for the All Black style of game.
Good chance: TJ Perenara. Just as good as Smith but needs to do it in big games.
Roughie: Tawera Kerr-Barlow. There is something missing in his game. Just that lack of polish. And if the referees policed the offside line properly, his game would take a big hit.
Knackers yard: Piri Weepu. Will be well out to pasture. And contentedly munching away.
LOOSE FORWARD
Sure thing: Kieran Read. A quality operator who has become a key All Black.
Good chance: Richie McCaw. Appears to still have the motivation but injuries are occurring. Will be coming on 35 and one wonders if the body can last. Liam Messam. Is maturing into a quality player. Still needs a few more games to confirm his place. Sam Cane. Looks suited to this level and gets round the park. Steven Luatua. Has the size and strength but needs to keep improving. Brad Shields. Exactly like Luatua and just itching for a chance.
Roughie: Luke Whitelock. In frame because of last name, but more George than Sam. Matt Todd. May suffer from a lack of game time. Ardie Savea. Could be just a tad too early.
Knackers yard: Jerome Kaino. After two years of Japanese rugby, is the motivation going to be there to get back and have another go? Victor Vito. Had chance but blew it.
LOCK
Sure things: Sam Whitelock. Keeps getting better and is vital for the side. Brodie Retallick. A good mix of athletic ability and hardness.
Good chance: Luke Romano. Big enough but still lingering doubts. Dominic Bird. A beast of a man but needs to get on the paddock. Should move to another franchise.
Knackers yard: Jeremy Thrush. A provincial journeyman. Jason Eaton. Chasing the yen. Jarrad Hoeata. Form of 2011 has completely disappeared.
PROP
Sure things: Charlie Faumuina. Big, strong and emerging. Owen Franks. Still a young bull, and keeps performing.
Good chance: Tony Woodcock. Teacher's pet and never lets the side down. In the coach's eyes, anyway. Ben Franks. Has done the business when needed. Will not get job as team's scorekeeper. Ben Afeaki. A solid operator, who continues to grow.
Roughies: Ben Tameifuna. Needs to cut down on the pies and burgers. Not the apple in the coach's eye. Jamie Mackintosh. Could a move to the Chiefs revitalise his career? Jeffery Toomaga-Allen: Long name, that. At least he will get noticed.
Knackers yard: John Schwalger. A move back from France is unlikely to end with a black jersey.
HOOKER
Good chance: Dane Coles. Appears to be the chosen one but is he big enough for the front row? Keven Mealamu. Veteran is hanging in there. Will be well managed over the next two years.
Roughie: Liam Coltman. Plenty of potential. Just needs to nail that lineout throwing. And get a decent shave.
Knackers yard: Ged Robinson. Said to have come back from Melbourne to get in the All Blacks. We all have similar dreams. Corey Flynn. Too many injuries, too many chances. Andrew Hore. His race is run. Good news for the Maggots.
