Although subject to weather-dependent variation, a month ago the fire danger in rural Otago was generally listed as "high", with some hotspots listed as "extreme".
Since the beginning of the month, virtually all of the region has been in the "extreme" category.
But that is just a part of the considerable danger that is facing the people of Central Otago, in particular.
Statistics gathered by the veteran Alexandra weather-watcher Jolyon Manning clearly show the gathering severity of the 10-week drought that has gripped the area.
To this must be added the recent examples of actual fires, including the potentially devastating fire at Roxburgh which, although it claimed one house, but for a fall of rain and the wind dropping, might well have claimed several more.
It beggars belief that, given the obvious risk, anyone would be stupid enough to actually light a fire outdoors, let alone do so as a purposeful act of arson, yet that is what has been happening in Central Otago this past week or so.
That children have been found to have started some of these fires is concerning, especially so when - even as young teenagers - they must have known something of the risks involved, if not to themselves then to the community.
It is to their great credit that in two cases the presumed culprits were taken to the police by their parents.
It is less creditable that adults are acting selfishly and thoughtlessly - such as lighting a bonfire, even on a riverbed, and sending fireworks into a pine reserve - in a district where a ban on all fires exists and has been well-publicised.
Spare a thought, too, for the local fire crews, manned by volunteers who, every time the siren goes, must cease their work and act on our behalf to protect property and life.
While the crews must deal with the immediate cause of call-outs, there is a role community groups and local administrators can play in ensuring everyone is aware of the dangers of fire in such conditions.
It is especially heartening that residents are reportedly alerting the emergency services as soon as they see smoke, which means the fire crews can respond with the greatest urgency.
More, however, needs to be done about perceptions.
It seems that many people think because trees such as willows and pines are carrying a green canopy, the fire risk to them must be low.
But many factors have to be taken into account when assessing fire danger, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall.
Moreover, expert analysis of the moisture content of surface litter will indicate the relative ease of ignition and flammability because the moisture content is very sensitive to the weather - just a day of rain, or of fine and windy weather, will significantly affect the fire rating, but a day's steady rain will not, as some assume, restore a low fire risk level.
Central Otago has been in effective drought for more than three months, so such a long period has dried out even quite deep layers of litter under forests or scrub.
As Clyde fire chief Richard Davidson said this week, the fire weather indices are high in parts of Central Otago already, yet usually the driest time is in February.
"Any fire at the moment has the potential to be very dangerous," he believes.
The community should heed that warning - locals and the many visitors alike.
It may well be time, given the pattern of weather in the past decade and predictions, for much greater attention to be paid in drought-prone districts to public education, especially for visitors, during the holiday season about safeguards against the hazards of outdoor fires.
It is clear that some people are woefully inadequately informed about how quickly, for example, fires in dry grass can start and how far they can move.
The potentially deadly combination of a parchment-dry landscape, consistently high temperatures, persistent drying winds and the very limited and localised effects of the occasional rain shower clearly needs widespread publicising, and perhaps it is also timely for residents to consider on a routine basis fire prevention, backburning, clearing vegetation around homes and establishing a good neighbourhood fire watch communication system.
The possible deadly consequences of the Roxburgh fire - had the sterling efforts of fire crews not been assisted by a drop in the wind and the arrival of a shower - should serve as a warning to everyone, locals and visitors alike.
