North Korea's succession plans

Kim Jong-un
Kim Jong-un
Irony, modesty and subtlety: these are not qualities found in abundance in the North Korean revolutionary dictionary.

The "Dear Leader" - recently departed - is to be succeeded by, variously, the "Respected Comrade", the "Great Comrade", the "Great Successor", being one and the same person, Kim Jong-un, son of Kim Jong-il, who was also known as the "Dear General".

Revolutionary fervour and devotion are evidently inspired and maintained in Pyongyang by a good deal of name calling. Or at least that, it seems, is the intention.

If there is a degree of uncertainty and unease in the world following the sudden death of Kim Jong-il last weekend, it is because North Korea has always adopted a bellicose attitude towards the outside world and while its erstwhile leader did not inspire as anything but unpredictable, at least he was a known unknown quantity.

His son, at 27, and only in recent years paraded in public as the anointed dynastic successor, is an unknown unknown quantity. How the regime will now shape its foreign policies is a question currently taxing the best of Pyongyang-watchers.

The anxiety is heightened because North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. According to some, these are both limited in scope and primitive: their threat is thought to be greater than their actual potential to wreak havoc on the Korean peninsula and adjacent Japan.

Better established is the extent of its more traditional military force, including the fifth largest army in the world and a vast array of weaponry. In the event of pre-emptive military adventurism, many thousands of South Koreans and Japanese could perish before the threat was neutralised.

Exactly why and how the regime has come to adopt such a paranoid and confrontational approach to the rest of the world remains in the realms of mystery and academic study - the latter extremely difficult to accomplish with confidence because of the secrecy and closed nature of the society.

The closest it has to an ally is China, but even this vast and powerful neighbour has, at times during the past few years, expressed guarded exasperation over the heated and bizarre rhetoric of Pyongyang.

China's interest lies chiefly in maintaining a peaceable equilibrium among its neighbours, and like the United States, South Korea, Japan and Russia, it will be watching for signs of instability within the ranks of the senior officials as the succession comes into effect.

The US and its chief Asian allies have resisted the temptation to call for a resumption of their stalled "six-party" talks on nuclear disarmament, rather focusing on discussions with representatives of the regime on a resumption of food aid to the north. For all its militaristic posturing, the country remains extremely poor and famines in recent years have caused widespread hardship, disease and death among its people.

Little is known about the "Great Successor" other than recently he was promoted to a four-star general and has headed a diplomatic mission to the Chinese capital. He was educated in Switzerland and is thought to speak English and some German. Dynastic support comes his way through his aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband Chang Song Taek, but the extent to which he is supported by other members of the military and the party is unknown.

There is speculation that in order to assert his authority within the regime he may have to be aggressive externally - an unnerving prospect, particularly for South Korea.

Reports of a power struggle are beginning to emerge in a Pyongyang rumoured to be moving away from a strongman dictatorship towards collective rule. It is thought this could include an uncle of Kim Jong-un and senior regime functionaries.

While there are elements of the dynastic rule which resemble a weird personality cult, it has also in the past displayed a steely and unflinching ruthlessness, often when it wanted to make a point to its neighbours and the watching superpowers. While the country mourns its "Dear Leader" ostentatiously, there will be maneuvering in the background. The resultant leadership configurations will dictate the degree of belligerence with which it addresses the outside world.

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