Meat companies are bracing themselves for a late flurry of lambs as favourable growing conditions over most of the country create a grass market.
Processing plants have been working short days because of the slow flow of prime lambs, but Silver Fern Farms chief executive Keith Cooper was confident the forecast number of lambs available for slaughter would be reached.
He said the abundant grass was affecting the flow of lambs from both store suppliers and finishers.
There had been a noticeable increase in kill numbers in the past week, he said, and as autumn and winter drew near, farmers would be keen to quit their stock.
"We do know stock will come over a period of time, but the risk associated with that is the influx of stock will not be in sync with markeplace requirements. It creates a production-driven model."
There was also a risk supply would outstrip demand, putting pressure on prices, he said.
Meat and Wool New Zealand estimates this year's total lamb crop will be 1.7 million higher than last year at 23.5 million.
It estimates the number of lambs available for export markets will be 1 million, or 4.4%, higher than last year.
The board's executive director, Rob Davison, said this number was still 6% below the average export lamb availability in the years from 2000 to 2008.