New transgenic pasture varieties developed in New Zealand to help farmers cope with climate change could end up being sold to overseas farmers.
AgResearch chief executive Andy West told the Meat Industry Association annual conference his scientists were breeding some exciting new pasture varieties that would cope with a different climate.
He could not reveal more details about the varieties' traits until patents had been secured, but said the chances of the new species being used commercially in New Zealand were remote because of a reluctance to use genetically modified products.
As a result, the New Zealand-developed pasture was likely to be sold to farmers in Australia, the United States and Canada.
"They have a different view on genetic engineering to what we do," Dr West said.
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) senior policy analyst Trecia Smith told the conference computer modelling had concluded that, in general, the west would be wetter and the east and north drier.
Average temperatures would rise between 1.75degC and 2degC by 2040 and 2degC and 2.25degC by 2090.
The temperature increase would be slightly less in Southland, which would also enjoy a wetter climate than now.
Dr Smith said that by 2090, West Coast rainfall could be 10% more, while the South Island's east coast could have 7.5% less rain.
Growing (degree) days could increase 5-10% by 2040 and 15% by 2090, meaning a later start to winter and an earlier start to spring.
By 2080, droughts in the Timaru region of the magnitude that occur once in 20 years could occur every five years.
"In extreme years, drought may be worse than anything we have experienced in the last 30 years," Dr Smith said.
Ironically, Southland, South Otago and northern Hawkes Bay could become more productive because of a warmer, wetter climate.
Canterbury should look to Hawkes Bay for advice on adapting farms, as should Waikato look to Northland and Northland to southeast Queensland, she said..
But southern farmers would also face new challenges, such as facial eczema and weeds that would make inroads when the climate became warmer.