Otago's weather is expected to return to normal over the next two months, with an occasional cold blast providing variation, the MetService's seasonal forecast says.
The northwest winds of spring are expected to be delayed this year while fronts are likely to mainly bring southwest wind changes, with occasionally showery conditions, especially along the coast.
"Some fronts may be followed by chilling southerly winds with hail and or sleet," the seasonal forecast team said.
In Central Otago and the southern lakes, the weather was also expected to return to normal, with long periods of dry weather expected.
Fronts and troughs rolling in from the Tasman Sea were expected to bring a return to normal rainfall.
In August, these fronts might add to the accumulation of mountain snow, the forecast said.
Computer models suggested there was a 75% probability of neutral conditions dominating the incoming spring, and just a 15% probability of a significant El Nino appearing.
A close year with similar weather patterns was 2001, which remained neutral through spring and into summer.
"Since there was no significant broad-scale influence on our weather patterns during the next few months, it opened the possibility for more variability and variety," the team said.
"We do not expect any one particular pattern to dominate for any more than a week or two."
The northern Tasman Sea was slightly warmer than normal and was likely to continue to be a breeding ground for low-pressure areas that would move on to various parts of New Zealand, especially during August.
Each of the systems was expected to bring periods of rain and some wind.
There would also be interludes of sunny weather and light winds, with some passing anticyclones or ridges of high pressure, but these were not expected to last long.
"Occasional polar blasts that bring chilling winds from the Southern Ocean are also on the menu."
