No guarantees on last-minute deal

United States President, Barack Obama.
United States President, Barack Obama.
Global financial disaster appears to have been averted with a last-minute deal announced yesterday by United States President Barack Obama to raise the US borrowing level.

However, problems still remain and last night there was still no guarantee the deal would pass, although there was an agreement to raise the debt level to avoid the US' defaulting on its bills.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said the value of the US dollar and oil prices should be on the rise this morning, while the price of gold falls and investors move back into riskier assets.

Sharemarkets around Asia and the Pacific rose on the news, the NZX50 being the most conservative. Sharemarkets were expected to improve again today as investors returned to shares rather than gold and fixed interest.

"But that is assuming the deal passes through completely. There will be a sigh of relief if it passes and the focus will then return to Europe's debt crisis," Mr Timms said.

He likened the debt crisis to a business which was profitable but which had a cash-flow problem. If it could not increase its borrowing, it could not become more profitable and trade its way out of difficulties.

"The US needs to get its economy moving along again.

Even if it leaves the tax rates unchanged, once the economy improves the increased tax take from business will help reduce the debt," he said.

Laying out the endgame in the crisis just two days before a deadline to lift the US debt ceiling, the White House and both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress said the compromise would cut about $US2.4 trillion ($NZ2.71 trillion) from the deficit in the next 10 years.

Now that top lawmakers had sealed a deal, both the Senate and House of Representatives were expected to vote this morning (NZ time) and, in principle, a Bill could be on Mr Obama's desk by nightfall.

While Senate approval is likely, the agreement's fate may be less certain in the House, Reuters reported.

After weeks of acrimonious impasse and with the final outcome hinging on support from recalcitrant lawmakers, Mr Obama pressured both sides to carry to fruition the accord hammered out behind closed doors.

"The leaders of both parties in both chambers have reached an agreement that will reduce the deficit and avoid default; a default that would have had a devastating effect on our economy," Mr Obama said at the White House.

"I want to urge members of both parties to do the right thing and support this deal with your votes over the next few days," he said.

The plan, which buoyed jittery global financial markets, involved a two-step process for reducing the US deficit. The first phase calls for about $US900 billion in spending cuts in the next decade, and the next $US1.5 trillion in savings must be found by a special congressional committee. Congress must act by December 23, 2011, under the deal.

Republicans had insisted on deep spending cuts before they would consider raising the $US14.3 trillion limit on US borrowing, turning a normally routine legislative matter into a dangerous game of brinkmanship.

While the deal means the US is unlikely to default, it is far from certain whether the plan agreed by the White House and lawmakers goes far enough in reducing the deficit to appease credit ratings agency S&P, which has threatened to strip the US of its top-notch AAA rating.

The emerging details had some Obama allies on edge, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services reported.

The House Progressive Caucus said the deal traded the livelihoods of people for votes of a few unappeasable right-wing radicals.

"The very wealthy will continue to receive taxpayer handouts and corporations will keep their expensive federal giveaways. Meanwhile, millions of families unfairly lose more in this deal than they have already lost. I will not be part of it," Progressive Caucus chairman Paul Grijalva said.

The Congressional Black Caucus called an emergency meeting for today to discuss the proposals. Group chairman Emanuel Cleaver called it "a sugar-coated Satan sandwich".

Mr Timms said the ongoing effects on New Zealand should see a fall in the value of the kiwi, which would help exporters.

The US took 8.5% of New Zealand exports, and the US was an important market for the country as a whole.


Key elements of US debt deal

• The deal would allow President Barack Obama to raise the debt ceiling in three steps. Congress would get a chance to register its disapproval on two of these, but would not be able to block them unless it musters a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate - an unlikely prospect.

• It envisions spending cuts of roughly $US2.4 trillion ($NZ2.71 trillion) over 10 years, which Congress would approve in two steps: an initial $US917 billion when the deal passes Congress and another $US1.5 trillion by the end of the year.

• The first group of spending cuts would apply to the discretionary programmes Congress approves annually, covering everything from the military to food inspection.

• Those programmes would be capped each year for 10 years. The caps would be relatively modest at first to avoid stifling the shaky economy - spending for the fiscal year that begins October 1 would be only $US6 billion below the present level of $US1.049 trillion. The caps would have a greater effect in later years, when it is hoped the economy will have recovered.

• About $US350 billion of the $US917 billion total would come from defence and other security programmes, which now account for more than half of all discretionary spending. Republicans are resisting this idea and it is one of the few areas of dispute left.

• Automatic across-the-board spending cuts would start if Congress does not observe the caps in coming years.

• A 12-member congressional committee, made up equally of Republicans and Democrats from each chamber, would be tasked with finding a further $1.5 trillion in budget savings.

• That committee could find savings from an overhaul of the tax code and restructuring benefit programmes such as Medicare - the politically risky decisions that lawmakers have not been able to agree on so far.

• The committee would have to complete its work by November 23. Congress would have an up-or-down vote, with no modifications, on the committee's recommendations by December 23.

• If the committee cannot agree on at least $1.2 trillion in savings, or Congress rejects its findings, automatic spending cuts totalling that amount would kick in starting in 2013.

• Those cuts would fall equally on domestic and military programmes.

• Medicare would face automatic cuts as well, but Social Security, Medicaid, federal employee pay, and benefits for veterans and the poor would be exempt.

• The plan also calls for both the House and the Senate to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution by the end of the year. It is not likely to receive the two-thirds vote in each chamber needed for passage, but its inclusion will make it easier for conservatives to back the overall deal.

 

 

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