There is still a remote chance results could roll Otago’s way. So for diehard fans who just cannot let go, here is how the blue and golds can slip into the playoffs.
Otago are in 12th place with 13 points from eight games. They can get to a maximum of 23 points if they win their final two games and pick up a couple of bonus points
That is going to be tough. They are away to Waikato (19 points, ninth) on Sunday and the home side are equally desperate to revive their playoff prospects.
If they can get through that game then they will need to beat Counties-Manukau at Forsyth Barr Stadium on October 1.
Wellington (37 points), Canterbury (31), Tasman (30), Taranaki (29), Auckland (27) and Hawke’s Bay (25) are all out of reach for Otago.
But with a lot of luck they can slip by North Harbour (22 points, seventh) and Bay of Plenty (20 points, eighth).
The easiest route through would be for North Harbour to lose their remaining games, against Wellington in the capital on Sunday and Taranaki in New Plymouth on September 30.
If they fail to pick up any bonus points then they would be stranded on 22 points and Otago could leapfrog them.
Another, more unlikely, way into the eight would be for Bay of Plenty (20 points, eighth) to fall apart in their final three games.
They play Northland (14 points, 11th) in Whangarei tonight and Southland (three points, 14th) in Invercargill on Wednesday and are at home to Tasman (third) on October 1.
Chances are the Steamers will win at least one of those games and pull out of reach, so that really only leaves one option for Otago.
Even if they can edge ahead of North Harbour, they will need to keep an eye on the rear-vision mirror.
Northland can get to 24 points with bonus point wins against Bay of Plenty and Auckland.
Should two teams end on the same amount of points, then the first tiebreak is the head-to-head result. Otago would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with both North Harbour and Bay of Plenty.
Southland cannot make the playoffs, but they have three games left to salvage what they can from the season and avoid the wooden spoon.
The Stags host Hawke’s Bay tomorrow and Bay of Plenty on Wednesday, before completing their campaign against Manawatu in Palmerston North on October 1.
Arguably Waikato shapes as the team mostly likely to nab that last spot and join Wellington, Canterbury, Tasman, Taranaki, Auckland, Hawke’s Bay and Bay of Plenty for the playoffs.
And even if Otago can manage to beat the odds and snap up the final playoff place, their reward will likely be an away game against the defending champions, Wellington.
*The McGillicuddy Serious Party was dissolved in 1999, which is a great shame because they promised everyone free dung and wanted to replace money with chocolate fish.
NPC standings
Wellington 37
Canterbury 31
Tasman 30
Taranaki 29
Auckland 27
Hawke’s Bay 25
North Harbour 22
Bay of Plenty 20
Waikato 19
Counties-Manukau 18
Northland 14
Otago 13
Manawatū 12
Southland 3
